Winning By the Numbers

Unless my old brain is playing tricks with me again, I do believe that, in the sport of soccer, teams will frequently play two games (home-and-home) with victory/advancement determined by the most cumulative goals … a two-game series with a “running” score, so to say.

Alas, total points and running score mean nothing when it comes to a pro basketball playoff series – so three wins in four games out-weighs an overall 5-point (306-311) deficit in series scoring, and Becky Hammon’s Las Vegas Aces are the WNBA’s 26^th champion.

Here’s a question for a serious hoop fan: At the most elite levels of play, what exactly distinguishes the “winning” team from the “losing” team?

In other words, what measurable component(s) of play most impact(s) the outcome? Is the young Pat Riley’s old "No Rebounds, No Rings" admonition to his Showtime Lakers-in-training the key ingredient of victory … or maybe this is simply a “Make-or-Miss” sport controlled by the team with a superior shooting rhythm in a given “moment” … perhaps the officials are a factor, with one side holding a lop-sided edge in trips to the foul line (i.e. “FT Conversions”) and/or total FT attempts … and how 'bout those pesky Turnovers?

The composite numbers from the Aces-Sun Final lend some credence to the “Make-or-Miss” theory – take a look!

2022 WNBA Finals (4 games)

Winning Team  /  Losing Team

Points: 335 (83.8)  /  282 (70.5)

Possessions 303 (75.8)  /  300 (75.0)

Conversions: 156 (.515)  /  134 (.447)

FG: 128-263 (.487)  / 108-261 (.414)

3FG: 29-91 (.319) [.346]  / 25-69 (.362) [.264]

FT: 50-63 (.794) [28]  / 41-59 (.695) [26]

OR: 22 (+8 Team) [.182]  / 31 (+7 Team) [.215]

DR: 115 (+10 Team)  /  99 (+10 Team)

TO: 38 (+4 Team) [.126]  /  44 (+7 Team) [.151]

The winning team recorded 20 more successful FG’s (four more 3FG’s), providing 11 points to the 13+ average margin of victory for the series – the losers (though committing two more Turnovers per game) out-performed their conquerors on the Offensive “glass” (38-30, as well as by percentage).

The numbers are quite similar when we look at the full 23-game slate for the ’22 post-season: winners +5 per game on successful FG’s and about -2 on per-game TO’s while the FT’s and O-boards remain relatively even.

It’s still a Make-or-Miss” game, even at the charity stripe – here are all the “gory” details.

 

2022 WNBA Playoffs (23 games)

Winning Team  /  Losing Team

Points: 2023 (88.0)  /  1713 (74.5)

Possessions 1784 (77.6)  /  1786 (77.7)

Conversions: 926 (.519)  /  800 (.448)

FG: 767-1593 (.481)  /  644-1545 (.417)

3FG: 184-495 (.372) [.311]  /  153-471 (.325) [.305]

FT: 305-372 (.820) [159]  /  272-365 (.745) [156]

OR: 171 (+50 Team) [.227]  /  162 (+52 Team) [.193]

DR: 678 (+54 Team)  /  583 (+51 Team)

TO: 235 (+18 Team) [.126]  /  274 (+25 Team) [.149]

I decided to trace this pattern back over the past four seasons, limiting the analysis to the last four WNBA Finals series, 16 total games.

Winners still made about 5 more shots per game (a couple of more FT’s and 3FG’s, as well) and committed 2 or 3 fewer miscues with the ball, while playing the runners-up to a stalemate Offensive Rebounding-wise.

2019-22 WNBA Finals (16 games)

Winning Team  /  Losing Team

Points: 1439 (89.9)  /  1217 (76.1)

Possessions 1246 (77.9)  /  1246 (77.9)

Conversions: 660 (.530)  /  564 (.453)

FG: 548-1114 (.492)  /  469-1099 (.427)

3FG: 134-363 (.369) [.326]  /  105-296 (.355) [.269]

FT: 209-251 (.833) [112]  /  174-220 (.791) [95]

OR: 117 (+41 Team) [.235]  /  134 (+37 Team) [.233]

DR: 440 (+35 Team)   /  381 (+31 Team)

TO: 162 (+16 Team) [.127]  /  202 (+21 Team) [.157]

Just for the sake of comparison, let’s take a peek at the Winner/Loser breakdown of the last four NBA Final series – the distribution of data is quite similar. Have a look.

 

2019-22 NBA Finals (24 games)

Winning Team  /  Losing Team

Points: 2699 (112.5)  /  2452 (102.2)

Possessions 2280 (95.0)  /   2285 (95.2)

Conversions: 1197 (.525)  /   1107 (.484)

FG: 974-2066 (.471)  /  882-1982 (.445)

3FG: 332-874 (.380) [.423]  /  279-782 (.357) [.395]

FT: 419-506 (.828) [223]  /  409-524 (.781) [225]

OR: 232 (+78 Team) [.235]  /  225 (+62 Team) [.221]

DR: 775 (+43 Team)  /  583 (+52 Team)

TO: 285 (+16 Team) [.116]  /  344 (+21 Team) [.142]

The ultimate champion recorded four more successful FG’s per game, two or three of them treys; FT opportunities and O-boards were relatively even; the losers tended to be a little more careless with the ball.

WNBA 2019: 8-Week Progress Report

“What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas!”

Oh, how Washington Mystics head coach Mike Thibault must wish that old adage were true, huh?

His squad rolled into Las Vegas to play Bill Laimbeer’s rugged Aces two weeks ago ridin’ high – atop the WNBA standings, fresh off a 43-point thrashing of the stout Connecticut Sun, and flaunting a five-game winning streak (four of those victories occurring on the road). Within seven minutes, the Capital Crew had surged to a 16-point advantage which still stood at 15 (51 – 36) at the intermission.

That intermission, unfortunately, coincided with a seismic shift, and the resulting tremor put an end to that evening’s frolic in Sin City. Coach Mike’s Ladies have yet to regain their equilibrium, falling into a three-game tailspin and out of the WNBA 2019 “Driver’s Seat.”

And to add injury to insult, the Mystics’ MVP candidate Elena Della Donne suffered a broken nose a mere minute into their subsequent 17-point loss to the mercurial LA Sparks.

Nonetheless, Washington ‘mystically” still sits atop the heap as the season hits its midpoint.

Here’s what an average 2019 WNBA game performance looks like, numerically.

[All data reflects play through Thursday, July 18.  An explanation of the criteria is available here.]

Possessions: 78.5

Points: 76.8  [PPP: 0.978]

FG: 28.8 – 69.1, .416

3FG: 6.5.5 – 19.87, .330

3PAr/Usage rate: .288

FT: 12.8 – 16.0, .800

(Off – Tot) Reb: 9.4 – 35.5  [OR% .264]

TO: 14.4  [TO% .161]

No. 1 Washington Mystics, 9-6 (14)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +2; (5 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall

Flow:  +2.80; (45.1 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall

Striping:  +1.27; (+3.10) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.83) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  +18; (560 [No. 1] – 542 [No. 8]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics launch more than 25 3FG’s per game, nearly 20% higher than any other squad this season.

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces, 11-5 (16)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  +3.94; (50.4 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 46.4 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 1 overall

Striping:  -1.94; (+0.38) conversions [No. 12] – (+2.31) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +67; (518 [No. 7] – 451 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Laimbeer Crew ranks No.1 in FG defense (.384) through 8 weeks.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Chicago, Las Vegas

3FG%: Chicago, Connecticut, Las Vegas

PPG: NONE

OR%: Connecticut, Dallas

TO%: Los Angeles, Washington

SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota

No. 3 Seattle Storm, 11-8 (19.5)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +1; (4 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +2.11; (46.5 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 44.4 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall

Striping:  -0.24; (+1.95) conversions [No. 5] - (+2.18) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  +32; (519 [No. 6] – 487 [No. 2]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The sharp-shooting Storm were No. 1 in FG% (.464) and 3FG% (.422) during Weeks 7 & 8.

No. 4 Connecticut Sun, 11-6 (20)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  -0.06; (45.4 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 45.5 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 6 overall

Striping:  -0.53; (+1.06) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.59) conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +59; (546 [No. 3] – 487 [No. 2]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: Sun opponents rank dead last in both 3FG% (.280) and 3-point usage (.211).

No. 5 Los Angeles Sparks, 10-7 (22)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  -0.71; (46.6 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 47.3 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 9 overall

Striping:  +0.76; (+2.62) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.85) opp conversions [No. 9]) / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  -15; (518 [No. 7] – 533 [No. 7]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks rank second in inducing empty possessions (46.6 per game).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Pace 103 games

100+ points: 4 games

90-99 points: 22 games

80-89 points: 54 games

70-79 points: 71 games

60-69 points: 44 games

<60 points: 11 games  

No. 6 Chicago Sky, 10-8 (24.5)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Flow:  -0.56; (46.2 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 46.7 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 7 overall

Striping:  +1.33; (+2.47) conversions [No. 3] – (+1.14) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  -33; (493 [No. 10] – 526 [No. 6]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky’s 83 ppg topped the “W” for Weeks 7 & 8.

No. 7 Minnesota Lynx, 10-8 (25.5)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  0; (4 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Flow:  +1.83; (46.6 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 44.7 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall

Striping:  -0.64; (+1.25) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.89) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  +55; (543 [No. 4] – 488 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx rank No. 2 in forcing TO’s (.184), but dead last in committing them (.180).

No. 8 Phoenix Mercury, 8-8 (26.5)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  +1; (3 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +1.06; (44.4 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 43.4 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 5 overall

Striping:  +0.28; (+2.06) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.78) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  -82; (463 [No. 12] – 545 [No. 9]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury rank second in taking care of the ball (TO%, .145).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Differential 103 games

1-5 points: 34 games

6-10 points: 27 games

11-15 points: 18 games

16-20 points:  12 games

>20: 12 games

No.9 Dallas Wings, 5-13 (30)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -4; (0 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall

Flow:  -2.61; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 10 overall

Striping:  +0.36; (+1.69) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.33) conversions [No. 3] / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  +19; (531 [No. 3] – 512 [No. 5]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings are the WNBA’s only winless team on the road (0 – 9).

No. 10 Indiana Fever, 6-12 (33)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  -3; (4 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall

Flow:  -0.61; (43.2 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 43.8 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall

Striping:  -0.28; (+1.33) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.61) conversions [No. 6) / No. 8 overall

SPOR-t:  -4; (555 [No. 2] – 559 [No. 11]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever attempted six more FT’s per game than their opposition during Weeks 7 & 8.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: New York

3FG%: Dallas, New York

PPG: NONE

OR%: Phoenix

TO%: Chicago

SPOR-t: Atlanta, New York, Phoenix

No. 11 New York Liberty, 7-10 (36)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall

Flow:  -3.12; (44.5 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 47.6 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall

Striping:  0.00; (1.41) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.41) opp conversions [No. 4] / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  -44; (503 [No. 9] – 547 [No. 10]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty were the second-best defensive rebounding team (.758) during Weeks 7 & 8.

No. 12 Atlanta Dream, 5-12 (45)

[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -5; (1 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall

Flow:  -3.59; (44.1 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 47.7 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

Striping:  -0.35; [+0.88) conversions [No. 11] – (+1.24) conversions [No. 2] / No. 9 overall

SPOR-t:  -83; (487 [No. 11] – 570 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream held opponents to 68.7 ppg during Weeks 7 & 8, best in the league.

Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Points per Shot (FGA) Differential

In its first 103 games, WNBA 2019 produced 15,830 points while attempting 14,233 field goals – a rate of 111.2 points per 100 shots.

Las Vegas +12.7 points per 100 shots [117.4 (No. 2) – 104.7 (No. 1)]

Washington +9.5 points per 100 shots [120.3 (No. 1) – 110.8 (No. 5)]

Phoenix +7.0 points per 100 shots [112.7 (No. 6) – 105.7 (No. 2)]

Chicago +6.9 points per 100 shots [115.8 (No. 3) – 108.9 (No. 4)]

Minnesota +2.1 points per 100 shots [113.3 (No. 5) – 111.2 (No.6)]

Seattle +2.0 points per 100 shots [113.7 (No. 4) – 111.7 (No. 7)]

Los Angeles -3.0 points per 100 shots [108.0 (No. 10) – 111.8 (No. 8)]

Connecticut -3.1 points per 100 shots [109.7 (No. 9) – 112.8 (No. 9)]

Indiana -3.5 points per 100 shots [111.0 (No. 7) – 113.5 (No. 10)]

Atlanta -6.0 points per 100 shots [101.0 (No. 12) – 107.0 (No. 3)]

New York -8.7 points per 100 shots [110.5 (No. 8) – 119.2 (No. 12)]

Dallas -14.4 points per 100 shots [102.6 (No. 11) – 117.0 (No. 11)]

WNBA 2019 at 6 Weeks: The "Road" to Progress

“It’s a long road and a little wheel and it takes a lot of turns to get there.”

That’s the epitaph for the early Charlie Daniels Band album Fire on the Mountain, meant as a metaphor for the hardscrabble lifestyle of a touring musician – or WNBA ballplayer, the Indiana Fever’s recent circuitous, 24-hour (the last eight on a bus) trek home from the Left Coast just the latest example.

Just 11 months ago, a Las Vegas Aces’ game was postponed – and subsequently deemed a forfeit – when a 36-hour commercial airline fiasco landed them in DC just hours before the scheduled tip-off. A sidebar to this tale of woe was the revelation – at least, to me – that WNBA teams are prohibited by league policy from using charter air travel without prior approval. (According to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, the cost of charter travel would be in excess of the W’s league-wide “gate” revenue.)

Despite the rigors of the road, WNBA home teams lost more games (93) in 2018 and posted a lower winning percentage (.544) than in any season since 2007.

Through six weeks and 75 games this season, the home-girls have won 47 times and posted the highest winning rate (.627) since 2009.

Here’s what an average 2019 WNBA game performance looks like, numerically.

[All data reflects play through Thursday, July 4.  An explanation of the criteria is available here.]

Possessions: 79.1

Points: 77.6  [PPP: 0.981]

FG: 29.0 – 69.2, .419

3FG: 6.63 – 19.92, .333

3PAr/Usage rate: .288

FT: 12.9 – 16.3, .795

(Off – Tot) Reb: 9.3 – 35.4  [OR% .263]

TO: 14.6  [TO% .161]

No. 1 Washington Mystics, 9-3 (5)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +4; (5 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall

Flow:  +4.67; (46.6 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 41.9 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 1 overall

Striping:  +2.08; (+3.50) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.42) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  +57; (578 [No. 1] – 521 [No. 6]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The sure-handed Mystics sport the loop’s scrawniest TO% (.135) through six weeks. 

No. 2 Connecticut Sun, 9-4 (21)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +3; (3 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall

Flow:  +0.46; (45.8 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 45.3 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 5 overall

Striping:  -1.04; (+0.92) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.96) conversions [No. 9] / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  +53; (539 [No. 4] – 486 [No. 3]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun are the only WNBA squad with an unblemished home record at this juncture.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Las Vegas, Washington

3FG%: Las Vegas, Washington

PPG: Washington

OR%: Connecticut, Minnesota

TO%: Washington

SPOR-t: Connecticut

No. 3 Las Vegas Aces, 8-5 (21.5)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)

Flow:  +3.77; (50.4 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 46.6 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 2 overall

Striping:  -2.23; (+0.27) conversions [No. 12] – (+2.50) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +60; (509 [No. 8] – 449 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The “W’s” most reluctant three-point shooters (.208, 3PAr) are also its most accurate (.354). 

No. 4 Seattle Storm, 8-7 (22)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +1; (3 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  +2.67; (46.8 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 44.1 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall

Striping:  -0.77; (+1.27) conversions [No. 8] - (+2.03) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +36; (516 [No. 7] – 480 [No. 2]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm’s 72.7 points allowed per game so far is second to none. 

No. 5 Los Angeles Sparks, 6-6 (24)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  +1; (3 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  -1.33; (47.2 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 48.5 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 7 overall

Striping:  +0.58; (+2.54) conversions [No. 3] – (+1.96) opp conversions [No. 8]) / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  -35; (490 [No. 10] – 525 [No. 7]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks struggle mightily to defend the three-ball, allowing .424 opponent accuracy during Weeks 5-6.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Pace 75 games

100+ points: 4 games

90-99 points: 15 games

80-89 points: 46 games

70-79 points: 48 games

60-69 points: 29 games

<60 points: 8 games  

No. 6 Minnesota Lynx, 7-6 (26)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  -1; (2 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  +1.69; (46.1 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 44.4 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall

Striping:  -0.58; (+1.15) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.73) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 9 overall

SPOR-t:  +43; (536 [No. 5] – 493 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The streaky Lynx shot .470 (No. 2) from the field during Weeks 5-6. 

No. 7 Chicago Sky, 6-7 (28)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)

Flow:  -1.92; (45.5 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 47.4 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 9 overall (tied)

Striping:  +1.50; (+2.65) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.15) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  -36; (503 [No. 9] – 539 [No. 8]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky force opponent Turnovers at the lowest rate in the “W” (.139).

No. 7 Phoenix Mercury, 2-5 (28)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  +1; (2 Road Win – 1 Home Loss) / No. 3 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  +0.10; (44.1 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 44.0 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 6 overall

Striping:  +0.10; (+2.35) conversions [No. 4] – (+2.25) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  -77; (465 [No. 12] – 542 [No. 9]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury buckled down on the “D” during Weeks 5-6, allowing only 69.3 ppg. 

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Differential 75 games

1-5 points: 23 games

6-10 points: 23 games

11-15 points: 10 games

16-20 points:  9 games

>20: 10 games

No. 9 Indiana Fever, 5-9 (29)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  -1; (3 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  -1.79; (42.2 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 44.0 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 8 overall

Striping:  +0.21; (+1.64) conversions [No. 5] – (+1.43) conversions [No. 6) / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  -10; (561 [No. 2] – 571 [No. 11]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: Exactly half of the Fever’s 14 games have been won by the road team.

No.10 Dallas Wings, 4-7 (31)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -2; (0 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall

Flow:  -2.45; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 45.7 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 11 overall

Striping:  +0.77; (+1.59) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.82) conversions [No. 1] / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  +27; (542 [No. 3] – 515 [No. 5]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings’ league-worst (.291) three-point shooting feeds their scoring woes (70.5 ppg, No. 11).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Atlanta, Connecticut

3FG%: New York

PPG: Atlanta

OR%: Los Angeles

TO%: Chicago, Las Vegas

SPOR-t: Atlanta, Phoenix

No. 11 New York Liberty, 6-7 (32.5)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (3 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)-3

Flow:  -4.00; (44.9 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 46.8 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 9 overall (tied)

Striping:  +0.19; (1.35) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.15) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  -21; (521 [No. 6] – 542 [No. 9]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty rank third in per-game scoring at 79.5. 

No. 12 Atlanta Dream, 2-9 (44)

[4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -5; (0 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall

Flow:  -5.09; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 47.8 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 12 overall

Striping:  -0.45; [+0.86) conversions [No. 11] – (+1.32) conversions [No. 4] / No. 8 overall

SPOR-t:  -135; (474 [No. 11] – 609 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream currently rank dead last in defensive rebounding (.675).

Abacus Revelation for the Road / per-game missed three-point shots

In 75 games, WNBA players attempted 2.988 three-point shots. They have been off-target on 1,994 of them – an average of 13.3 misses per game per team.

Las Vegas 9.38 missed treys [3FG%: .354, No. 1] 

Indiana 11.29 missed treys [3FG%: .342, No. 7]

Minnesota 13.00 missed treys [3FG%: .335, No. 8]

Connecticut 13.38 missed treys [3FG%: .348, No. 6]

Phoenix 13.40 missed treys [3FG%: .353, No. 2]

Seattle 13.40 missed treys [3FG%: .304, No. 10]

Chicago 13.46 missed treys [3FG%: .352, No. 4]

Los Angeles 13.58 missed treys [3FG%: .351, No. 5]

New York 13.85 missed treys [3FG%: .313, No. 9]

Atlanta 14.55 missed treys [3FG%: .298, No. 11]

Dallas 14.64 missed treys [3FG%: .291, No. 12]

Washington 16.42 missed treys [3FG%: .352, No. 3]

WNBA 2018 11-week Progress Report

In a WNBA summer in which the unexpected has become almost commonplace – the dreadful Fever own road victories over both 2017 Finalists (Go figger!!) – the Las Vegas Aces produced genuine shock waves with their “boycott” of an August 3 game in DC on the heels of a travel-day-from-hell. Spectators had begun to arrive when word of the “postponement” (which became a forfeit) was released.

Despite the TKO-loss, Bill Laimbeer’s young transplants to Sin City continue to breathe down the necks of the Dallas Wings for the final spot in the playoffs. And the awarded victory keeps the Mystics in the midst of a multi-team scrum – the Dream, Sparks and Sun involved as well, maybe even the reigning-and-defendings – for the last three “Byes” behind Storming Seattle.

Oh, and make sure you check out my “Revelation for the Road” below – maybe the most confounding component of this topsy-turvy season has been the virtual absence of a Home Court advantage. (Maybe the Aces should have rolled the dice that Friday night!!)

The Season by the Numbers (per-game per team) thru 177 games

Possessions: 79.2

Points: 82.4  [PPP: 1.040]

FG: 30.4 – 68.4, .445

3FG: 6.6 – 19.3, .343

3PAr/Usage rate: .282

FT: 15.0 – 18.8, .795

(Off – Tot) Reb: 8.8 – 34.3  [OR% .257]

TO: 13.7  [TO% .151]

Stats and data represent play through Wednesday, Aug. 9.

An explanation of the criteria for ranking is available here.

An index of bi-weekly ratings available here.

No. 1 Seattle Storm, 23-8 (8)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +8; (12 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall

Flow:  +2.65; (43.8 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 1 overall

Striping:  +1.32; (+2.74) conversions [No. 2] - (+1.42) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  +33; (571 [No. 3] – 538 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm have yielded .488 FG shooting since the All-Star Break, despite winning four of five games.

No. 2 Connecticut Sun, 17-12 (13)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied-3)

Flow:  +2.17; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 41.4 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 2 overall

Striping:  +0.24; (+1.67) conversions [No. 5] – (+1.43) conversions [No. 9] / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  +116; (635 [No. 1] – 519 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The best rebounding squad in the “W” ranks No. 1 in OR% (.316) and No. 2 in DR% (.767).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Phoenix

3FG%: NONE

PPG: Seattle

OR%: Connecticut, Minnesota

TO%: Connecticut, Washington

SPOR-t: Connecticut, Seattle

No. 3 Washington Mystics, 18*-11 (18)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  +4; (9 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied-3)

Flow:  +0.21; (41.6 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 41.3 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall

Striping:  +1.36; (+2.86) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.50) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  -1; (566 [No. 4] – 567 [No. 9]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics miss just 2.66 FT attempts per game, lowest in the WNBA.

No. 4 Minnesota Lynx, 17-13 (22.5)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +3; (9 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +1.23; (43.5 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 5 overall

Striping:  -1.10; (+0.70) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.80) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +66; (558 [No. 5] – 492 [No. 1]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The one steady component to the Lynx’ uncharacteristically inconsistent performance has been their top-notch (.796) defensive rebounding.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Pace 24 games [177 overall]

100+ points: 8 games [29 overall]

90-99 points: 9 games [65 overall]

80-89 points: 11 games [106 overall]

70-79 points: 15 games [117 overall]

60-69 points: 3 games [31 overall]

<60 points: 2 games [6 overall]

No. 5 Atlanta Dream, 20-10 (23)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied-3)

Flow:  +1.40; (45.8 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 44.4 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 4 overall

Striping:  -1.12; [+0.07) conversions [No. 11] – (+1.18) conversions [No. 4] / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  +26; (548 [No. 6] – 522 [No. 3]) / No. 5 overall 

Abacus Revelation: The stout Dream defense ranks No. 1 in FG% (.419) and No. 2 in 3FG% (.326).

No. 6 Dallas Wings, 14-15 (23.5)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  -2; (5 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)

Flow:  +1.48; (43.4 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 41.9 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 3 overall

Striping:  -0.53; (+0.62) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.16) conversions [No. 3] / No. 9 overall

SPOR-t:  +55; (600 [No. 2] – 545 [No. 6]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings attempt 4.17 more FT’s r per game than do their opponents, No. 2 in the league.

No. 7 Los Angeles Sparks, 18-12 (25)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  +2; (8 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall

Flow:  +0.97; (41.9 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 41.0 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 6 overall

Striping:  +0.75; (+1.48) conversions [No. 7] – (+0.73) opp conversions [No. 1]) / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  -18; (524 [No. 8] – 542 [No.5]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks have posted the league’s worst OR% (.208).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Differential 24 games [177 overall]

1-5 points: 5 games [42 overall]

6-10 points: 5 games [46 overall]

11-15 points: 7 games [37 overall]

16-20 points:  3 games [25 overall]

>20 points:  4 games [27 overall]

 No. 8 Phoenix Mercury, 16-14 (25.5)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  +3; (11 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +0.40; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 7 overall

Striping:  +1.18; (+2.48) conversions [No. 3] – (+1.30) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  -63; (519 [No. 10] – 582 [No. 11]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Phoenix opposition posts the lowest usage rate for 3-pointers (.256), but the second-best connect rate (.355). 

No. 9 Las Vegas Aces, 12-17* (36.5)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -2; (6 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)

Flow:  +0.14; (43.8 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 43.7 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 9 overall

Striping:  -3.07; (-0.83) conversions [No. 12] – (+2.24) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  -5; (540 [No. 7] – 545 [No. 6]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Aces miss 5.41 FT’s per game, most in the league.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Indiana, Las Vegas

3FG%: New York

PPG: Indiana, New York

OR%: Phoenix

TO%: Chicago, Phoenix

SPOR-t: Indiana, Phoenix

 No. 10 Chicago Sky, 10-19 (38)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -5; (4 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall

Flow:  -4.03; (41.0 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 45.0 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall

Striping:  0.38; (+1.72) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.34) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  -109; (524 [No. 8] – 633 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky rank dead last in the “W” when it comes to defending the 3-ball (.357).

No. 10 New York Liberty, 7-22 (38)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK: -9; (3 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall

Flow:  -2.14; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 44.8 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 10 overall

Striping:  +0.19; (+1.55) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.34) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 8 overall

SPOR-t:  -33; (516 [No. 11] – 549 [No. 8]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty rank No. 10 in FG% (.432) and No. 11 in TO% (.164).

No. 12 Indiana Fever, 5-24 (41)

[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -10; (3 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall

Flow:  -4.76; (40.5 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 45.3 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

Striping:  +0.29; (+1.31) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.02) conversions [No. 2] / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  -77; (497 [No. 12] – 574 [No. 10]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever rank No. 2 in TO% (.143).

Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Home-Court Advantage (?)

In its first 177 games, WNBA 2018 has seen “visiting” teams win 86 times – that’s damn near half the games (.486). Here’s the break-down by team:

Phoenix 30 games – 19 “road” wins (.633)

Indiana 29 games – 16 “road” wins (.552)

New York 29 games – 15 “road” wins (.517)

Seattle 31 games – 16 “road” wins (.516) 

Minnesota 30 games – 15 “road” wins (.500)

Las Vegas 29 games – 14 “road” wins (.483)  

Washington 29 games – 14 “road” wins (.483)

Los Angeles 30 games – 14 “road” wins (.467)

Chicago 29 games – 13 “road” wins (.448)

Connecticut 29 games – 12 “road” wins (.414)

Dallas 29 games – 12 “road” wins (.414)

Atlanta 30 games – 12 “road” wins (.400)