Saturday, August 26, 2017

WNBA 2017: 14-week Progress Report

The 25 WNBA games staged during Weeks 13 & 14 bore witness to 14 40+% three-point shooting performances. [Fortnight Four’s 23 tip-offs produced 20 such displays.]

Two teams shot north of Forty for the full 14 days, two allowed such marksmanship – the Sky did both.

Simultaneously, the ladies had their roughest stretch of the season at the foul line, a paltry .789. Of course, even at that level, the “W’s” free-throw accuracy easily surpasses the production of their NBA brethren. In an average game this summer, a team shoots 16.08 for 19.96 (.805) from the charity stripe.

Fast Fact: In WNBA ’17, the team that attempts more free throws is 108 – 57 (.655).


The following rankings reflect play through Friday, August 18. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 22-5 (11.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +8; (10 Road Wins – 2 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)
Flow:  +5.70; (45.1 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 39.4 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  -0.37; (+0.85) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.22) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +130; (634 [No. 1] – 504 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx’s 14.6 points-per-100-possessions edge is six points more than the next best squad (LA).


No. 2 Los Angeles Sparks, 21-8 (13.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +8; (9 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)
Flow:  +3.24; (42.9 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 39.6 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.22; (+1.14) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.36) opp conversions [No. 11]) / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +29; (568 [No. 5] – 539 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks have held opponents below 70 points in seven games, tied for No. 1.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
3FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York, Washington
TO%: Los Angeles
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota, New York


No. 3 Connecticut Sun, 18-10 (17)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall
Flow:  +2.11; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 41.5 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  -0.39; (+0.84) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.23) conversions [No. 9] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  +84; (604 [No. 2] – 520 [No. 3]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun own the lowest TO rate (.125) in the loop.


No. 4 Washington Mystics, 16-12 (18)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow:  +1.04; (41.8 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 40.8 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  +0.59; (+1.75) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.16) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +25; (584 [No. 3] – 559 [No. 7]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics’ FG defense (.506) went missing-in-action during Weeks 13 & 14.


No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, 15-13 (20)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  +1; (8 Road Win – 7 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall
Flow:  +1.29; (43.1 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 41.8 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  +0.82; (+1.04) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.21) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  -23; (533 [No. 10] – 556 [No. 6]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury ranked second shooting (.487) during Weeks 13 & 14.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 25 games [171 overall]

100+ points: 6 games [18 overall]
90-99 points: 6 games [62 overall]
80-89 points: 19 games [123 overall]
70-79 points: 12 games [95 overall]
60-69 points: 6 games [35 overall]
<60 points: 1 games [9 overall]



No. 6 New York Liberty, 16-12 (24)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK: +3; (7 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow:  +0.68; (42.9 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  -0.55; (+0.63) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.18) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +74; (578 [No. 4] – 504 [No. 1]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty shot better on three balls (.455) than overall (.437) in a recent home victory over the defending champs.


No. 7 Chicago Sky, 11-17 (29.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -3; (7 Road Wins – 10 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -2.14; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 44.9 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +1.14; (+1.63) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.48) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -55; (539 [No. 9] – 594 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky posted a whopping 97 points a game during Weeks 13 & 14.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 25 games [171 overall]

1-5 points: 7 games [39 overall]
6-10 points: 9 games [59 overall]
11-15 points: 3 games [33 overall]
16-20 points:  3 games [19 overall]
>20:  3 games [21 overall]



No. 8 Dallas Wings, 13-16 (31)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -2; (4 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
Flow:  -4.00; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.6 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  +0.38; (+1.03) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.66) conversions [No. 4] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  -34; (563 [No. 6] – 597 [No. 10]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings take 4.31 more FT’s per game than the opposition, tops in the league.


No. 9 Seattle Storm, 13-16 (32.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -3; (3 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.52; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  +0.33; (+1.83) conversions [No. 1] - (+1.50) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -97; (511 [No. 11] – 608 [No. 11]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm rank dead last (TO%, .167) in taking care of the ball.


No. 10 Atlanta Dream, 10-19 (36)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -5; (3 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow:  -0.45; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 44.0 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  -0.88; [-0.26) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.62) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +4; (554 [No. 8] – 550 [No. 5]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream had more FG attempts than points during their winless Weeks 13 & 14.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Indiana, Washington
PPG: Atlanta, Indiana
OR%: Indiana, Los Angeles, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle


No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 7-23 (38)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -9; (1 Road Win – 10 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -2.00; (40.5 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  -0.45; (+0.38) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.83) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -19; (555 [No. 7] – 574 [No. 8]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Stars have made 58 of 141 treys (.411) during the past four weeks (9 games).


No. 12 Indiana Fever, 9-20 (41)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -4; (3 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall
Flow:  -4.38; (38.6 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 43.0 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  -0.34; (+0.93) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.28) conversions [No. 10] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  -123; (498 [No. 12] – 621 [No. 10]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever attempted 11 fewer FT’s per game then their opponents during Weeks 13 & 14..


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Conversion Quotient (CQ)

Total WNBA play through 171 games computes to 26,675 offensive possessions, of which 12,967 resulted in “conversion” – a successful FG or trip to the foul line – a conversion rate of .486.

Minnesota CQ, +72 [conv. rate: .515 (No. 1) – opp. conv rate: .443 (No. 1)]
Los Angeles CQ, +44 [conv. rate: .507 (No. 2) – opp. conv rate: .463 (No. 2)]
Connecticut CQ, +35 [conv. rate: .507 (No. 3) – opp. conv rate: .472 (No. 4)]
New York CQ, +16 [conv. rate: .483 (No. 6) – opp. conv rate: .467 (No. 3)]
Washington CQ, +8 [conv. rate: .489 (No. 4) – opp. conv rate: .481 (No. 6)]
Phoenix CQ, +2 [conv. rate: .487 (No. 5) – opp. conv rate: .485 (No. 7)]
Atlanta CQ, -7 [conv. rate: .474 (No. 9) – opp. conv rate: .481 (No. 5)]
Seattle CQ, -15 [conv. rate: .481 (No. 8) – opp. conv rate: .496 (No. 9)]
San Antonio CQ, -28 [conv. rate: .467 (No. 11) – opp. conv rate: .495 (No. 8)]
Chicago CQ, -29 [conv. rate: .469 (No. 10) – opp. conv rate: .498 (No. 10)]
Dallas CQ, -33 [conv. rate: .483 (No. 7) – opp. conv rate: .516 (No. 11)]
Indiana CQ, -58 [conv. rate: .460 (No. 12) – opp. conv rate: .518 (No. 12)]

Saturday, August 12, 2017

WNBA 2017: 12-week Report Card

Somewhere on every team’s list of desirable qualities, often included among the “keys to victory,” is free-throw line efficiency – make all your foul shots, or at least minimize the misses. The Atlanta Dream miss over five FT’s a game, worst in the “W” – at the other extreme, surprisingly, sits the Indiana Fever who misfire on but 2.60 freebies per game.

But the raw numbers can be misleading. For instance, in their first four games out of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Sky missed a mere eight foul shots – two per game, best in the league; alas, their opponents attempted 11 more FT’s than did the Sky, every game – worst in the league, unsurprisingly.

There’s only one WNBA squad that ranks in the Top Four in both fewest per-game missed free throws, and in differential in per-game FT attempts … that is, only one team who minimizes misses while maximizing attempts. Through 24 games, this group averages 3.04 (No. 2) FT misses per game while taking 3.29 (No. 3) more attempts per game.

You’ll hardly be shocked to learn that such an old-school approach to the No. 2 spot in these rankings is being conducted – through injury, international obligation, and all the other regular whatnot of summer play – under the supervision of Mike Thibault.

The following rankings reflect play through Friday, August 4. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 20-2 (9)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +8; (9 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow:  +5.32; (44.9 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 39.6 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  +0.05; (+1.09) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.05) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +118; (630 [No. 1] – 512 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx made three out of every five 2FG attempt during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 2 Washington Mystics, 14-10 (14.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +4; (6 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.92; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 40.8 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  +0.75; (+1.96) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.21) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +31; (585 [No. 3] – 554 [No. 7]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: Despite unreliable FG shooting, the Mystics outscore their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the league.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Minnesota
3FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York
TO%: Atlanta, Los Angeles
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Los Angeles, Minnesota


No. 3 Los Angeles Sparks, 18-6 (15)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +5; (6 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall
Flow:  +3.42; (42.3 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 38.8 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.21; (+0.92) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.13) opp conversions [No. 7]) / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +41; (574 [No. 4] – 533 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks shot 120 for 216 (.555) on two-pointers during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 4 Connecticut Sun, 15-9 (17.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +4; (7 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.58; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 41.0 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  -0.23; (+1.08) conversions [No. 5] – (+1.31) conversions [No. 9] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +89; (614 [No. 2] – 525 [No. 3]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun defense recorded a whopping 50.7 stops per game during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, 13-11 (21)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  0; (6 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall
Flow:  +0.92; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 42.4 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  +0.77; (+1.06) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.29) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  -19; (523 [No. 10] – 542 [No. 5]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: Taurasi & Co. take one more three-pointer a quarter than their opponents – every quarter, every game.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 24 games [146 overall]

100+ points: 1 game [12 overall]
90-99 points: 11 games [56 overall]
80-89 points: 18 games [104 overall]
70-79 points: 13 games [83 overall]
60-69 points: 4 games [29 overall]
<60 points: 1 games [8 overall]



No. 6 New York Liberty, 12-12 (26)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK: +1; (5 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow:  +0.08; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  -0.71; (+0.60) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.31) opp conversions [No. 9] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +63; (573 [No. 5] – 510 [No. 1]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty defense was slow coming back from the ASB, yielding a 47% FG rate (No. 11) and 50% conversion rate (No. 10).


No. 7 Chicago Sky, 9-16 (29.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -2; (7 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -2.72; (42.4 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +1.00; (+1.32) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.32) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -51; (537 [No. 9] – 588 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky had less than half as many FT attempts as their opponents (33 compared to 77) during Weeks 11 & 12.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 24 games [146 overall]

1-5 points: 6 games [32 overall]
6-10 points: 6 games [50 overall]
11-15 points: 7 games [30 overall]
16-20 points:  3 games [16 overall]
>20:  2 games [18 overall]



No. 8 Atlanta Dream, 10-14 (31.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  +0.96; (44.7 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 43.7 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  -0.94; [-0.37) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.56) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  -1; (544 [No. 8] – 545 [No. 6]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream seem to have the Three-Game figured out – they rank No. 2 in defending treys (.292) and induce opponents to register the third highest usage rate (.274).


No. 9 Dallas Wings, 12-14 (33)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
Flow:  -4.04; (40.1 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.1 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  +0.29; (+1.02) conversions [No. 7] – (+0.73) conversions [No. 4] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -43; (561 [No. 6] – 604 [No. 11]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: Among the league’s poorer shooters from distance, the Wings drained 42% of their treys over Weeks 11 & 12.


No. 10 Seattle Storm, 10-14 (33.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -4; (2 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.17; (40.4 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 40.5 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  +0.31; (+1.94) conversions [No. 2] - (+1.63) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  -95; (514 [No. 11] – 609 [No. 12]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm’s anemic board-work ranks them dead last in both Offensive and Defensive Rebounding.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Dallas, Indiana
PPG: Indiana
OR%: Indiana, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle



No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 5-21 (39)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -9; (1 Road Win – 10 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -2.58; (40.0 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 42.6 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  -0.60; (+0.25) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.85) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -30; (552 [No. 7] – 582 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: For the first time this season, the Stars attempted more FT’s than the opposition (three per game) during Weeks 11 & 12.


No. 12 Indiana Fever, 8-17 (42.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -4; (3 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall (tied)
Flow:  -3.44; (39.0 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  -0.48; (+0.88) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.36) conversions [No. 11] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  -99; (501 [No. 12] – 600 [No. 10]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever offense has limped to less than a point per possession over the past six weeks (13 games).


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Per-game Turnover Differential

Through 146 games, WNBA play has produced 3,806 turnovers (or 13.03 per game per team) … just about one in six (.168) of the more than 22,000 offensive possessions.

For the record, seven times this season WNBA teams have played to a standoff in the Turnover column of a game’s stat sheet … in the remaining games, the team that committed fewer TO’s has 89 wins and 50 losses, .640. Hmmm.

Los Angeles -2.87 TO’s committed per game [11.8 (No. 3) – 14.7 (No. 2)]
Atlanta -2.79 TO’s committed per game [12.2 (No. 4) – 15.0 (No. 1)]
Connecticut -1.83 TO’s committed per game [11.7 (No. 2) – 13.5 (No. 7)]
Indiana -1.40 TO’s committed per game [12.4 (No. 5) – 13.8 (No. 5)]
Minnesota -1.00 TO’s committed per game [13.7 (No. 9) – 14.7 (No. 3)]
Dallas -0.77 TO’s committed per game [13.3 (No. 1) – 14.1 (No. 4)]
Washington -0.75 TO’s committed per game [10.8 (No. 1) – 11.5 (No. 10)]
Phoenix -0.29 TO’s committed per game [13.3 (No. 1) – 13.6 (No. 6)]
San Antonio +1.92 TO’s committed per game [14.3 (No. 10) – 12.4 (No. 8)]
New York +2.58 TO’s committed per game [13.1 (No. 6) – 10.5 (No. 12)]
Seattle +2.71 TO’s committed per game [14.4 (No. 11) – 11.7 (No. 9)]
Chicago +4.25 TO’s committed per game [15.3 (No. 12) – 11.1 (No. 11)]

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

WNBA 2017: 10-week (ASG) Report Card

The calendar may have ordained it the FOUR-teenth, but the second Friday of July sure felt like a Bad Luck Day for the WNBA and its fan base. Two of the summer loop’s brightest young veterans – the top two picks in the draft just four years ago – went down and stayed down until assisted from the floor. Washington Mystic fans had yet to begin breathing normally in front of their screens from Elena Della Donne’s faulty ankle when promising guard Taylor Hill was lost for the season to an ACL injury.

The Phoenix Mercury crowd got their double-whammy all at once early in the fourth quarter, as WNBA leading scorer Brittney Griner collapsed to a grotesquely twisted ankle, but reached for her knee, which was determined to have sustained a bone bruise. She’s expected to miss a month.

Mishaps, in the form of both injury as well as sub-par play, have always been a part of basketball. In-game errors – which were indeed first called Errors in the early days of the old ABA – are now called Turnovers and have been an official game stat for about 50 years.

Through 10 weeks and 122 ballgames, WNBA play has generated 18, 942 possessions (77.6 per team per game) and 3,168 TO’s (12.98 per team per game). Thus, one of every six possessions (.167) has ended not with a field goal attempt and/or trip to the foul line, but rather an offensive error of some sort.

It seems a no-brainer that limiting one own TO’s and inducing opponent errors would constitute successful play, huh? So just how frequently does the teams that wins the Turnover battle actually win the game? Does TO superiority provide as much advantage as, say, Homecourt?

Well, Home teams have won 71 games and lost 51 (.582).

The team who took better care of the ball won 72 times while losing only 43 (.626) – seven games resulted in equal TO’s.

Playoff Peek

While Cheryl Reeve’s Minnesota Lynx dynasty rolls on, a couple of pretty good races seem to be shaping up for the now-coveted No. 2 and No. 4 seeds for the post-season. Under the format adopted in 2016, the top two finishers are spared the dangerous one-and-done “guillotine” rounds entirely, while the “shes” who fall to No. 5 face the prospects of two such showdowns.

The Chicago Sky graded out as the league’s top team for Weeks 9 & 10, joining Connecticut (Weeks 5 & 6) and Phoenix (Weeks 3 & 4, tie) as the only dark clouds to the Minny-glow.


The following rankings reflect play through Thursday, July 20. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 16-2 (8)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +7; (8 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow:  +4.83; (44.6 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 39.7 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  +0.33; (+1.22) conversions [No.3] – (+0.89) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  +121; (637 [No. 1] – 516 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The best Offensive Rebounding (.316) team in the “W” are the third-best (.474) shooters.

No. 2 Washington Mystics, 12-9 (14)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +2; (4 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow:  +2.05; (43.1 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  +0.67; (+2.14) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.48) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +26; (579 [No. 3] – 553 [No. 6]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics top the league in both three-point usage (.323) and TO% (.120).


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: NONE
3FG%: Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York
TO%: Atlanta
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota


No. 3 Los Angeles Sparks, 14-6 (18.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  +4; (5 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall (tied)
Flow:  +2.70; (41.7 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 39.0 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.20; (+1.08) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.28) opp conversions [No. 10]) / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +3; (566 [No. 5] – 563 [No. 7]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: LA ranks No. 2 in opponent per-game scoring, yet No. 9 in FG and 3FG defense. How?

No. 4 Connecticut Sun, 9-7 (19)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +4; (7 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied)
Flow:  +0.33; (41.5 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  0.00; (+1.10) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.10) conversions [No. 8] / No. 6 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +71; (611 [No. 2] – 540 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun’s five missed FTs per game dubiously tops the league.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, 11-9 (23)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  -1; (5 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow:  +1.45; (42.9 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 41.5 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  +0.50; (+0.95) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.45) opp conversions [No. 3] / No. 3 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -1; (535 [No. 10] – 536 [No. 3]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury have been a better team on the road (5-3) than at home (6-6).


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 27 games [122 overall]

100+ points: 5 games [11 overall]
90-99 points: 8 games [45 overall]
80-89 points: 20 games [86 overall]
70-79 points: 13 games [70 overall]
60-69 points: 6 games [25 overall]
<60 points: 2 games [7 overall]


No. 6 Atlanta Dream, 9-11 (25)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow:  +2.05; (44.7 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 42.7 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  -1.22; [-0.47) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.75) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +5; (548 [No. 7] – 543 [No. 5]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The worst three-point shooters in the league hit for 40% over the last two weeks. Go figure!

No. 7 New York Liberty, 10-9 (26.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK: -10; (3 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow:  +1.00; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  -0.68; (+0.37) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.05) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +73; (568 [No. 4] – 495 [No. 1]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty have led the “W” in FG defense (.403) for nearly two months.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 27 games [122 overall]

1-5 points: 5 games [26 overall]
6-10 points: 7 games [44 overall]
11-15 points: 7 games [23 overall]
16-20 points:  4 games [13 overall]
>20:  4 games [16 overall]


No. 8 Chicago Sky, 8-13 (27.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (6 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow:  -2.95; (42.0 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 45.0 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  +0.95; (+1.10) conversions [No. 4] – (+0.14) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -47; (546 [No. 9] – 593 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky increased their per game scoring by 15 points during Weeks 9 & 10.

No. 9 Seattle Storm, 9-11 (33.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -4; (2 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow:  -0.15; (40.7 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 40.9 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  +0.50; (+1.98) conversions [No. 2] - (+1.48) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 3 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -82; (517 [No. 11] – 599 [No. 10]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The dead-eye Storm hit 51% of their FG attempts during Weeks 9 & 10.

No. 10 Dallas Wings, 10-12 (35)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow:  -3.59; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.2 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  0.00; (+0.66) conversions [No. 9] – (+0.66) conversions [No. 4] / No. 6 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -40; (562 [No. 6] – 602 [No. 11]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings play the highest scoring games in the league, 173.4 combined ppg.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Dallas, Indiana
PPG: Chicago, Indiana
OR%: Los Angeles, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle


No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 3-18 (39)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -7; (1 Road Win – 8 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -3.10; (40.1 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 43.2 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  -0.43; (+0.19) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.62) opp conversions [No. 3] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  -34; (547 [No. 8] – 581 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The spunky Stars outplayed the other guys by four possessions a game over the last two weeks.

No. 12 Indiana Fever, 8-13 (43)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall
Flow:  -3.38; (38.4 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 41.8 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  -0.45; (+0.79) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.24) conversions [No. 9] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -93; (512 [No. 12] – 605 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever rank third in the league in forcing TO’s (.160).


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Points per Shot (FGA) Differential

Through 122 games, the WNBA has scored 19,956 points while attempting 16,381 field goals – a rate of 121.8 points per 100 shots.

Seattle +14.8 points per 100 shots [132.7 (No. 1) – 117.9 (No. 5)]
Minnesota +14.5 points per 100 shots [128.5 (No. 3) – 114.0 (No. 1)]
Los Angeles +10.6 points per 100 shots [130.7 (No. 2) – 120.1 (No. 8)]
Phoenix +5.6 points per 100 shots [125.6 (No. 4) – 120.0 (No. 7)]
Washington +5.4 points per 100 shots [119.4 (No. 7) – 114.0 (No. 2)]
New York +0.3 points per 100 shots [116.2 (No. 9) – 115.9 (No. 3)]
Chicago -1.2 points per 100 shots [115.8 (No. 11) – 117.0 (No. 4)]
Atlanta -3.2 points per 100 shots [115.9 (No. 10) – 119.1 (No. 6)]
Connecticut -5.1 points per 100 shots [119.5 (No. 6) – 124.6 (No. 9)]
Dallas -9.0 points per 100 shots [121.4 (No. 5) – 130.4 (No. 11)]
San Antonio -13.4 points per 100 shots [111.3 (No. 12) – 124.7 (No. 10)]
Indiana -15.3 points per 100 shots [117.2 (No. 8) – 132.5 (No. 12)]