Unless my old brain is playing tricks with me again, I do believe that, in the sport of soccer, teams will frequently play two games (home-and-home) with victory/advancement determined by the most cumulative goals … a two-game series with a “running” score, so to say.
Alas, total points and running score mean nothing when it
comes to a pro basketball playoff series – so three wins in four games
out-weighs an overall 5-point (306-311) deficit in series scoring, and Becky
Hammon’s Las Vegas Aces are the WNBA’s 26th champion.
Here’s a question for a serious hoop fan: At the most elite
levels of play, what exactly distinguishes the “winning” team from the “losing”
team?
In other words, what measurable component(s) of play most
impact(s) the outcome? Is the young Pat Riley’s old "No Rebounds, No Rings" admonition to his Showtime
Lakers-in-training the key ingredient of victory … or maybe this is simply a “Make-or-Miss”
sport controlled by the team with a superior shooting rhythm in a given “moment”
… perhaps the officials are a factor, with one side holding a lop-sided edge in
trips to the foul line (i.e. “FT Conversions”) and/or total FT attempts … and how 'bout those pesky Turnovers?
The composite numbers from the Aces-Sun Final lend some credence to the “Make-or-Miss” theory – take a look!
2022 WNBA Finals (4 games)
Winning Team / Losing
Team
Points: 335 (83.8) / 282 (70.5)
Possessions 303 (75.8) / 300 (75.0)
Conversions: 156 (.515) / 134 (.447)
FG: 128-263 (.487) / 108-261 (.414)
3FG: 29-91 (.319) [.346] / 25-69 (.362) [.264]
FT: 50-63 (.794) [28] / 41-59 (.695) [26]
OR: 22 (+8 Team) [.182] / 31 (+7 Team) [.215]
DR: 115 (+10 Team) / 99 (+10 Team)
TO: 38 (+4 Team) [.126] / 44 (+7 Team) [.151]
The winning team recorded 20 more successful FG’s (four more
3FG’s), providing 11 points to the 13+ average margin of victory for the series
– the losers (though committing two more Turnovers per game) out-performed
their conquerors on the Offensive “glass” (38-30, as well as by percentage).
The numbers are quite similar when we look at the full
23-game slate for the ’22 post-season: winners +5 per game on successful FG’s
and about -2 on per-game TO’s while the FT’s and O-boards remain relatively
even.
It’s still a Make-or-Miss” game, even at the charity stripe –
here are all the “gory” details.
2022 WNBA Playoffs (23 games)
Winning Team / Losing
Team
Points: 2023 (88.0) / 1713 (74.5)
Possessions 1784 (77.6) / 1786 (77.7)
Conversions: 926 (.519) / 800 (.448)
FG: 767-1593 (.481) / 644-1545
(.417)
3FG: 184-495 (.372) [.311] / 153-471 (.325) [.305]
FT: 305-372 (.820) [159] / 272-365 (.745) [156]
OR: 171 (+50 Team) [.227] / 162 (+52 Team) [.193]
DR: 678 (+54 Team) / 583
(+51 Team)
TO: 235 (+18 Team) [.126] / 274 (+25 Team) [.149]
I decided to trace this pattern back over the past four seasons, limiting the analysis to the last four WNBA Finals series, 16 total games.
Winners still made about 5 more shots per game (a couple of more FT’s and 3FG’s, as well) and committed 2 or 3 fewer miscues with the ball, while playing the runners-up to a stalemate Offensive Rebounding-wise.
2019-22 WNBA Finals (16 games)
Winning Team / Losing
Team
Points: 1439 (89.9) / 1217 (76.1)
Possessions 1246 (77.9) / 1246 (77.9)
Conversions: 660 (.530) / 564 (.453)
FG: 548-1114 (.492) / 469-1099
(.427)
3FG: 134-363 (.369) [.326] / 105-296 (.355) [.269]
FT: 209-251 (.833) [112] / 174-220 (.791) [95]
OR: 117 (+41 Team) [.235] / 134 (+37 Team) [.233]
DR: 440 (+35 Team) / 381
(+31 Team)
TO: 162 (+16 Team) [.127] / 202 (+21 Team) [.157]
Just for the sake of comparison, let’s take a peek at the
Winner/Loser breakdown of the last four NBA Final series – the distribution of
data is quite similar. Have a look.
2019-22 NBA Finals (24 games)
Winning Team / Losing
Team
Points: 2699 (112.5) / 2452 (102.2)
Possessions 2280 (95.0) / 2285 (95.2)
Conversions: 1197 (.525) / 1107 (.484)
FG: 974-2066 (.471) / 882-1982
(.445)
3FG: 332-874 (.380) [.423] / 279-782 (.357) [.395]
FT: 419-506 (.828) [223] / 409-524 (.781) [225]
OR: 232 (+78 Team) [.235] / 225 (+62 Team) [.221]
DR: 775 (+43 Team) / 583 (+52 Team)
TO: 285 (+16 Team) [.116] / 344 (+21 Team) [.142]
The ultimate champion recorded four more successful FG’s per
game, two or three of them treys; FT opportunities and O-boards were relatively
even; the losers tended to be a little more careless with the ball.
