NBA 2014: 3-week Power Ratings

If we look at the NBA’s regular season as if it were a 48-minute game, then we’ve reached the six-minute mark – the first media time-out, if you will.

It’s hardly news that the league’s power lies in the West, and the initial set of power ratings seems to affirm this notion – five of the Top Six and seven of the Top Ten.

These rankings reflect the first 21 days of the season (through Monday Nov. 17).

Power Ratings --The Measurement Instrument

Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference.

The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of veteran NBA coach George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).

Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into a successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the opponent.

Lastly, please allow Abacus to introduce the “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by missed FG’s). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, its offensive rebounds account for .199 of its missed field goals, and .143 of its possessions result in a turnover. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.

We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.

No. 1 Memphis Grizzlies (11) 

[3-week ESPN rating: 2]

10-1, .909; 1^st in Southwest Division / 1^st seed / 1^st overall

KK:  +4; (4 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall

CQ:  +47; (.513 [10^th] - .466 [2^nd]) / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  +43; (578 [8^th] – 535 [9^th]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Grizzlies are 91-30 (regular season) on their home floor since the 2011 work stoppage.

No. 2 Dallas Mavericks (16)

[3-week ESPN rating: 10]

8-3, .727; 3^rd in Southwest Division / 5^th seed / 6^th overall (tied)*

KK:  +2; (3 Road Wins – 1 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +62; (.543 [1^st] - .481 [7^th]) / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  +85; (634 [1^st] – 549 [13^th]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The highest scoring team in the league, the Mavs are No. 1 in forcing turnovers and No. 7 in opponent’s rate of conversion.

No. 3 Houston Rockets (19.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 1]

9-2, .818; 2^nd in Southwest Division / 2^nd seed / 2^nd overall

KK:  +5; (6 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall

CQ:  +20; (.480 [23^rd] - .460 [1^st]) / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  +21; (535 [19^th] – 514 [5^th]) / No. 9 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: The explosive Rockets sport the best defensive efficiency (.460) in the league at this juncture.

No. 4 Washington Wizards (22)

[3-week ESPN rating: 9]

7-2, .778; 1^st in Southeast Division / 2^nd seed / 5^th overall

KK:  +3; (3 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +41; (.513 [9^th] - .472 [6^th]) / No. 9 overall

SPOR-t:  +46; (554 [15^th] – 508 [2^nd]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wizards 25% accuracy from the three-point line is down from 38% last year.

No. 5 Golden State Warriors (22.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 3]

8-2, .800; 1^st in Pacific Division / 3^rd seed / 3^rd overall (tied)

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 3 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +31; (.497 [17^th] - .466 [3^rd]) / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  +17; (527 [21^st] – 510 [4^th]) / No. 11 overall  

Abacus Revelation: The Warriors (for two straight weeks) are No. 1 in FG offense (.499) and FG defense (.414).

No.6 Sacramento Kings (24.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 12]

6-4, .600; 2^nd in Pacific Division / 6^th seed / 9^th overall (tied)

KK:  +2; (3 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 6 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +26; (.514 [8^th] - .488 [9^th]) / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  +53; (569 [10^th] – 516 [6^th]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: Sacramento ranks No. 3 in both securing and preventing Offensive Rebounds.

No. 7 Toronto Raptors (25.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 8]

8-2, .800; 1^st in Atlantic Division / 1^st seed / 3^rd overall (tied)

KK:  +1; (2 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 9 overall (tied)***

CQ:  +34; (.528 [2^nd] - .494 [14^th]) / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  +35; (580 [7^th] – 545 [12^th]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Raptors’ offense is clicking at a 53% rate of conversion, second best in the league.

No. 8 Chicago Bulls (36)

[3-week ESPN rating: 7]

8-3, .727; 2^nd in Central Division / 3^rd seed / 6^th overall (tied)*

KK:  +3; (6 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +23; (.516 [5^th] - .493 [12^th]) / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  -19; (560 [13^th] – 579 [26^th]) / No. 19 overall

Abacus Revelation: Last season’s worst shooting team (.432) currently ranks fifth (.469).

No. 9 Portland Trail Blazers (37.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 5]

8-3, .727; 1^st in Northwest Division / 4^th seed / 6^th overall (tied)*

KK:  0; (1 Road Win – 1 Home Loss) / No. 14 overall (tied)**

CQ:  +15; (.504 [12^th] - .489 [10^th]) / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +44; (593 [4^th] – 549 [13^th]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Blazers recognize the importance of the three-point field goal—they’re No. four in both shooting and defending them.

No. 10 San Antonio Spurs (38)

[3-week ESPN rating: 4]

6-4, .600; 4^th in Southwest Division / 7^th seed / 9^th overall (tied)

KK:  +2; (3 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 6 overall (tied)*

CQ:  +2; (.471 [26^th] - .469 [5^th]) / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +21; (501 [28^th] – 480 [1^st]) / No. 9 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: The Spurs are yielding fewer than eight offensive rebounds per game, tops in the Association.

No. 11 New Orleans Pelicans (38.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 13]

5-4, .556; 5^th in Southwest Division / 9^th seed / 12^th overall (tied)*

KK:  0; (1 Road Win – 1 Home Loss) / No. 14 overall (tied)**

CQ:  +18; (.525 [3^rd] - .507 [24^th]) / No. 8 overall

SPOR-t:  +57; (618 [2^nd] – 561 [20^th]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: Solid ball-handling and aggressive board-work have made the Pelicans the third most efficient offensive team in the league.

No. 12 Cleveland Cavaliers (50)

[3-week ESPN rating: 6]

5-4, .556; 2^nd in Central Division / 4^th seed / 12^th overall (tied)*

KK:  +1; (3 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)***

CQ:  +6; (.515 [7^th] - .509 [25^th]) / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  +5; (588 [6^th] – 583 [27^th]) / No. 15 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Cavs have been lighting up the scoreboard (fourth in PPG, second in points per possession), Clevelan’ (as in, No D) is No. 28 in opponent FG% and No. 25 in opponent Conversion Rate.

No. 13 Milwaukee Bucks (59)

[3-week ESPN rating: 17]

5-5, .500; 3^rd in Central Division / 7^th seed / 17^th overall

KK:  +1; (2 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 9 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -5; (.463 [28^th] - .468 [4^th]) / No. 17 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +11; (519 [23^rd] – 508 [2^nd]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: Milwaukee’s defense is top-tier (fourth-best in opponent’s rate of conversion), but they rank 28^th in points per game, shot and possession.

No. 14 Miami Heat (66)

[3-week ESPN rating: 14]

6-5, .545; 3^rd in Southeast Division / 6^th seed / 15^th overall (tied)

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 14 overall (tied)**

CQ:  0; (.502 [14^th] - .502 [19^th]) / No. 14 overall

SPOR-t:  -27; (522 [22^nd] – 549 [13^th]) / No. 21 overall

Abacus Revelation: Last season Miami’s opposition shot .457 from the field. Miami’s opposition currently shoots .457 from the field.

No. 15 Brooklyn Nets (71)

[3-week ESPN rating: 21]

4-6, .400; 2^nd in Atlantic Division / 9^th seed / 19^th overall

KK:  -1; (1 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -1; (.502 [15^th] - .503 [20^th]) / No. 15 overall

SPOR-t:  -10; (558 [14^th] – 568 [23^rd]) / No. 17 overall

Abacus Revelation: Last season’s second-best team at forcing turnovers has dipped to No. 16.

No. 15 Atlanta Hawks (71)

[3-week ESPN rating: 16]

5-4, .556; 2^nd in Southeast Division / 5^th seed / 12^th overall (tied)*

KK:  +1; (1 Road Win – 0 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -9; (.488 [19^th] - .497 [16^th]) / No. 19 overall

SPOR-t:  -54; (515 [25^th] – 569 [24^th]) / No. 28 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Hawks offensive efficiency has improved by four points (.488 - .484) since last season – and their ranking (19^th) is six positions higher. Weird, huh?

No. 17 Boston Celtics (73)

[3-week ESPN rating: 22]

3-6, .333; 3^rd in Atlantic Division / 11^th seed / 23^rd overall

KK:  -3; (1 Road Win – 4 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall

CQ:  -4; (.515 [6^th] - .519 [27^th]) / No. 16 overall

SPOR-t:  +40; (615 [3^rd] – 575 [25^th]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The C’s shooting is rather impressive, third best in FG%. Alas, the Stevens crew lets the other guys shoot just as well, third from the bottom.

No. 18 Phoenix Suns (73.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 14]

6-5, .545; 4^th in Pacific Division / 10^th seed / 15^th overall (tied)

KK:  -1; (2 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -17; (.487 [20^th] - .504 [22^nd]) / No. 22 overall

SPOR-t:  -4; (530 [20^th] – 534 [8^th]) / No. 16 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Suns are Top Ten in preventing second shots so far, up from No. 21 last year.

No. 19 Los Angeles Clippers (74.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 11]

5-4, .556; 3^rd in Pacific Division / 8^th seed / 11^th overall

KK:  -2; (1 Road Win – 3 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**

CQ:  +1; (.502 [13^th] - .501 [18^th]) / No. 13 overall 

SPOR-t:  -31; (508 [27^th] – 539 [10^th]) / No.  26 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Clippers are the poorest Offensive Rebounding team in the Association.

No. 20 Orlando Magic (75)

[3-week ESPN rating: 25]

5-7, .417; 4^th in Southeast Division / 8^th seed / 18^th overall

KK:  +1; (3 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -15; (.485 [21^st] - .500 [17^th]) / No. 21 overall

SPOR-t:  -30; (519 [23^rd] – 549 [13^th]) / No. 25 overall

Abacus Revelation: After allowing opponents a 55% conversion rate in a win-less Week One, they’ve been under 50 in the subsequent nine games.

No. 21 Charlotte Hornets (81)

[3-week ESPN rating: 19]

4-7, .364; 5^th in Southeast Division / 10^th seed / 20^th overall (tied)*

KK:  -1; (1 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall (tied)***

CQ:  +6; (.486 [24^th] - .480 [11^th]) / No. 17 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -28; (514 [26^th] – 542 [11^th]) / No. 22 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: Charlotte’s Top Five FG Defense from last season has slipped to Bottom Ten.

No. 22 Utah Jazz (83.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 20]

4-7, .364; 2^nd in Northwest Division / 11^th seed / 20^th overall (tied)*

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 14 overall (tied)**

CQ:  -14; (.507 [11^th] - .521 [28^th]) / No. 20 overall

SPOR-t:  -41; (572 [9^th] – 613 [29^th]) / No. 27 overall

Abacus Revelation: The young Jazz are among the Top Ten in FG%, points per possession, and Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

No. 23 Indiana Pacers (84.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 18]

4-7, .364; 4^th in Central Division / 11^th seed / 20^th overall (tied)*

KK:  -2; (2 Road Wins – 4 Home Loss) / No. 23 overall (tied)**

CQ:  -27; (.466 [27^th] - .493 [13^th]) / No. 26 overall (tied)*

SPOR-t:  +16; (547 [16^th] – 531 [7^th]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: A ranking of 27^th (PPG, Conversion Rate, FG%) seems to sum up the Pacers’ offensive proficiency. Unfortunately, they also rank 27^th in forcing turnovers.

No. 24 Denver Nuggets (89)

[3-week ESPN rating: 27]

3-7, .300; 3rd in Northwest Division / 12^th seed / 24^th overall

KK:  -1; (2 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -27; (.489 [18^th] - .516 [26^th]) / No. 26 overall (tied)*

SPOR-t:  -16; (546 [17^th] – 562 [21^st]) / No. 18 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Nuggets offensive output (points, FG%, efficiency) have been improving week-by-week. 

No. 25 New York Knicks (91)

[3-week ESPN rating: 24]

3-8, .273; 4^th in Atlantic Division / 13^th seed / 25^th overall (tied)*

KK:  -4; (1 Road Win – 5 Home Losses) / No. 28 overall (tied)

CQ:  -23; (.484 [22^nd] - .507 [23^rd]) / No. 23 overall

SPOR-t:  +11; (567 [11^th] – 556 [18^th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: During Week Three, the Knicks took a page from their division-winning 2013 squad, hitting treys at nearly 40% while turning the ball over at a paltry 12% rate.

No. 26 Minnesota Timberwolves (97)

[3-week ESPN rating: 28]

2-7, .222; 5^th in Northwest Division / 14^th seed / 28^th overall

KK:  -1; (1 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall (tied)***

CQ:  -29; (.499 [16^th] - .528 [29^th]) / No. 29 overall

SPOR-t:  -25; (566 [12^th] – 591 [28^th]) / No. 20 overall

Abacus Revelation: Rebounding is the one area in which the T’wolves’ have been excelling – fifth-best in securing offensive boards, sixth-best at preventing them.

No. 27 Detroit Pistons (97.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 26]

3-8, .273; 5^th in Central Division / 13^th seed / 25^th overall (tied)*

KK:  -2; (1 Road Win – 3 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**

CQ:  -25; (.478 [25^th] - .503 [21^st]) / No. 24 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -28; (538 [18^th] – 566 [22^nd]) / No. 22 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: Last season the Pistons ranked second in forcing turnovers (18%); currently they are dead last (12%).

No. 28 Oklahoma City Thunder (104)

[3-week ESPN rating: 23]

3-8, .273; 4^th in Northwest Division / 13^th seed / 25^th overall (tied)*

KK:  -2; (1 Road Win – 3 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**

CQ:  -25; (.459 [29^th] - .484 [8^th]) / No. 24 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -59; (500 [29^th] – 559 [19^th]) / No. 29 overall

Abacus Revelation: Though the Thunder are one of but two teams posting fewer than 90 points per game, Coach Scott Brooks can take heart in a consistently high (currently No. 6) in defensive efficiency.

No. 29 Los Angeles Lakers (110)

[3-week ESPN rating: 29]

1-9, .100; 5^th in Pacific Division / 15^th seed / 29^th overall

KK:  -5; (0 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 30 overall

CQ:  -27; (.517 [4^th] - .544 [30^th]) / No. 26 overall (tied)*

SPOR-t:  -29; (589 [5^th] – 618 [30^th]) / No. 24 overall

Abacus Revelation: While the offense has shown some signs of spark, these Lakers have proven to be the least “pesky” defensive unit in the circuit.

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (118.5)

[3-week ESPN rating: 30]

0-10, .000; 5^th in Atlantic Division / 15^th seed / 30^th overall

KK:  -4; (0 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 28 overall (tied)

CQ:  -59; (.437 [30^th] - .496 – [15^th]) / No. 30 overall

SPOR-t:  -108; (444 [30^th] – 552 [17^th]) / No. 30 overall

Abacus Revelation: On average, a game involving the Sixers features nearly 40 turnovers and over 50 free throws.