Friday, December 12, 2014

NBA 2014-15 after Six Weeks: From the Brim to the Dregs



The first full season of the National Basketball Association’s Adam Silver Era completed its first “Quarter” of play Monday, Dec . 8.

This 2014-15 round of play marks the 36th season during which the league has utilized the 3-point field goal. Initially viewed as an oddity or mere desperation tactic, this piece of hoops strategy has grown into an efficient, indeed even essential component to effective play. Consider this little factoid – there are currently six teams that rank in the Top Ten in both shooting and defending the “three.” Combined, these six squads are 90-32. The teams? The Hawks, Suns, Warriors, ‘Blazers, Clippers and defending-champion Spurs.

Portland, LA and San Antone are also among the elite in preventing opponent Offensive Rebounds.

Let’s see how the league “adds up” at the quarter-pole. (The Criteria is explained below.)

No. 1 Golden State Warriors (9)
[6-week ESPN rating: 1
3-week Abacus rating: 5
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 7
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 12]

18-2, .900; 1st in Pacific Division / 1st seed / 1st overall
KK:  +10; (11 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
CQ:  +42; (.504 [12th] - .462 [1st]) / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +48; (560 [14th] – 512 [3rd]) / No. 4 overall

No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (13)
[6-week ESPN rating: 3
3-week Abacus rating: 1
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 2
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 1]

16-4, .800; 1st in Southwest Division / 2nd seed / 2nd overall (tied)*
KK:  +6; (7 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 3 overall
CQ:  +45; (.522 [3rd] - .477 [5th]) / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +46; (591 [4th] – 545 [9th]) / No. 5 overall

No. 3 Dallas Mavericks (16)
[6-week ESPN rating: 7
3-week Abacus rating: 2
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 13
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 8]

16-6, .727; 4th in Southwest Division / 7th seed / 8th overall
KK:  +5; (8 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +49; (.540 [1st] - .491 [9th]) / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  +64; (628 [1st] – 564 [18th]) / No. 2 overall

No. 4 San Antonio Spurs (16.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 2
3-week Abacus rating: 10
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 1
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 17]

15-5, .750; 3rd in Southwest Division / 5th seed / 6th overall (tied)
KK:  +7; (8 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall
CQ:  +26; (.497 [17th] - .471 [2nd]) / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +49; (544 [18th] – 495 [1st]) / No. 3 overall

No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers (27.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 5
3-week Abacus rating: 9
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 15
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 19]

16-4, .800; 1st in Northwest Division / 2nd seed / 2nd overall (tied)*
KK:  +4; (6 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
CQ:  +11; (.499 [15th] - .488 [7th]) / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +38; (577 [8th] – 539 [7th]) / No. 6 overall

No. 5 Washington Wizards (27.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 11
3-week Abacus rating: 4
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 11
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 9]

14-6, .700; 1st in Southeast Division / 2nd seed / 9th overall (tied)
KK:  +2; (4 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)***
CQ:  +33; (.508 [9th] - .475 [4th]) / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  +69; (573 [10th] – 504 [2nd]) / No. 1 overall

No. 7 Toronto Raptors (29.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 9
3-week Abacus rating: 7
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 12
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 9]

16-5, .762; 1st in Atlantic Division / 1st seed / 5th overall
KK:  +3; (6 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
CQ:  +25; (.530 [2nd] - .505 [22nd]) / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +27; (601 [2nd] – 574 [24th]) / No. 8 overall

No. 8 Los Angeles Clippers (32)
[6-week ESPN rating: 6
3-week Abacus rating: 19
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 3
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 5]

15-5, .750; 2nd in Pacific Division / 5th seed / 6th overall (tied)
KK:  +4; (7 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
CQ:  +24; (.520 [4th] - .496 [13th]) / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +21; (542 [19th] – 521 [4th]) / No.  10 overall

No. 9 Houston Rockets (34)
[6-week ESPN rating: 4
3-week Abacus rating: 3
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 8
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 2]

16-4, .800; 1st in Southwest Division / 2nd seed / 2nd overall (tied)*
KK:  +5; (8 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +3; (.476 [26th] - .473 [3rd]) / No. 13 overall
SPOR-t:  +14; (540 [20th] – 526 [5th]) / No. 13 overall

No. 10 Cleveland Cavaliers (38)
[6-week ESPN rating: 8
3-week Abacus rating: 12
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 14
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 15]

12-7, .632; 1st in Central Division / 4th seed / 11th overall
KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)***
CQ:  +26; (.518 [6th] - .492 [10th]) / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +22; (589 [5th] – 567 [21st]) / No. 9 overall

No. 11 Chicago Bulls (47)
[6-week ESPN rating: 10
3-week Abacus rating: 8
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 9
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 7]

12-8, .600; 2nd in Central Division / 5th seed / 12th overall
KK:  +5; (10 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +9; (.507 [11th] - .498 [16th]) / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  -14; (555 [15th] – 569 [23rd]) / No. 18 overall

No.12 Sacramento Kings (47.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 18
3-week Abacus rating: 6
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 16
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 21]

11-10, .524; 4th in Pacific Division / 9th seed / 14th overall
KK:  0; (5 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 17 overall (tied)
CQ:  +17; (.520 [5th] - .503 [21st]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +30; (583 [6th] – 553 [13th]) / No. 7 overall

No. 13 Atlanta Hawks (48.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 12
3-week Abacus rating: 15
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 23
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 26]

14-6, .700; 1st in Southeast Division / 2nd seed / 9th overall (tied)
KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
CQ:  +17; (.503 [13th] - .486 [6th]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -20; (535 [23rd] – 555 [15th]) / No. 20 overall

No. 14 New Orleans Pelicans (54)
[6-week ESPN rating: 14
3-week Abacus rating: 11
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 19
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 22]

9-10, .474; 5th in Southwest Division / 10th seed / 16th overall
KK:  +2; (4 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)***
CQ:  0; (.515 [7th] - .515 [27th]) / No. 14 overall
SPOR-t:  +19; (598 [3rd] – 579 [26th]) / No. 11 overall

No. 15 Phoenix Suns (60)
[6-week ESPN rating: 13
3-week Abacus rating: 18
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 10
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 14]

12-10, .545; 3rd in Pacific Division / 8th seed / 13th overall
KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)***
CQ:  -11; (.490 [20th] - .501 [19th]) / No. 17 overall
SPOR-t:  -13; (540 [20th] – 553 [13th]) / No. 17 overall

No. 16 Milwaukee Bucks (63)
[6-week ESPN rating: 16
3-week Abacus rating: 13
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 25
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 28]

11-11, .500; 3rd in Central Division / 6th seed / 15th overall
KK:  +1; (5 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 16 overall
CQ:  -7; (.489 [21st] - .496 [14th]) / No. 16 overall
SPOR-t:  0; (561 [13th] – 561 [17th]) / No. 16 overall

No. 17 Denver Nuggets (67.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 22
3-week Abacus rating: 24
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 20
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 27]

9-12, .429; 2nd in Northwest Division / 10th seed / 18th overall
KK:  0; (4 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 17 overall (tied)
CQ:  -13; (.498 [16th] - .511 [24th]) / No. 19 overall (tied)*
SPOR-t:  +16; (572 [11th] – 556 [16th]) / No. 12 overall

No. 18 Boston Celtics (77)
[6-week ESPN rating: 21
3-week Abacus rating: 17
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 28
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 24]

7-12, .368; 3rd in Atlantic Division / 10th seed / 21st overall
KK:  -7; (2 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall
CQ:  -4; (.493 [19th] - .497 [15th]) / No. 15 overall
SPOR-t:  +10; (562 [12th] – 552 [12th]) / No. 14 overall

No. 19 Brooklyn Nets (83.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 20
3-week Abacus rating: 15
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 18
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 16]

8-11, .421; 2nd in Atlantic Division / 8th seed / 19th overall
KK:  -2; (4 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied)
CQ:  -12; (.483 [22nd] - .495 [12th]) / No. 18 overall
SPOR-t:  -39; (528 [25th] – 567 [21st]) / No. 26 overall

No. 20 Orlando Magic (85)
[6-week ESPN rating: 19
3-week Abacus rating: 20
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 26
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 20]

9-14, .391; 4th in Southeast Division / 9th seed / 20th overall
KK:  +2; (7 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)***
CQ:  -25; (.482 [23rd] - .507 [23rd]) / No. 25 overall
SPOR-t:  -47; (517 [28th] – 564 [18th]) / No. 27 overall

No. 21 Miami Heat (87)
[6-week ESPN rating: 17
3-week Abacus rating: 14
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 17
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 3]

9-11, .450; 3rd in Southeast Division / 7th seed / 17th overall
KK:  -1; (5 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall
CQ:  -16; (.499 [14th] - .515 [26th]) / No. 21 overall
SPOR-t:  -69; (507 [29th] – 576 [25th]) / No. 30 overall

No. 22 Oklahoma City Thunder (88.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 15
3-week Abacus rating: 28
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 6
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 4]

7-13, .350; 3rd in Northwest Division / 12th seed / 22nd overall
KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -18; (.471 [27th] - .489 [8th]) / No. 23 overall
SPOR-t:  -18; (529 [24th] – 547 [11th]) / No. 19 overall

No. 23 Indiana Pacers (89)
[6-week ESPN rating: 23
3-week Abacus rating: 23
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 21
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 5]

7-14, .333; 4th in Central Division / 11th seed / 23rd overall
KK:  -3; (3 Road Wins – 6 Home Loss) / No. 22 overall
CQ:  -33; (.470 [29th] - .503 [20th]) / No. 29 overall
SPOR-t:  +5; (536 [22nd] – 531 [6th]) / No. 15 overall

No. 24 Charlotte Hornets (91.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 25
3-week Abacus rating: 21
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 4
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 13]

5-15, .250; 5th in Southeast Division / 12th seed / 24th overall
KK:  -6; (1 Road Win – 7 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -17; (.482 [24th] - .499 [17th]) / No. 22 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -21; (525 [27th] – 546 [10th]) / No. 21 overall (tied)

No. 25 Utah Jazz (93)
[6-week ESPN rating: 26
3-week Abacus rating: 22
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 27
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 25]

5-16, .238; 4th in Northwest Division / 13th seed / 25th overall (tied)
KK:  -6; (2 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -15; (.507 [10th] - .522 [28th]) / No. 20 overall
SPOR-t:  -31; (574 [9th] – 605 [29th]) / No. 23 overall

No. 26 Los Angeles Lakers (96)
[6-week ESPN rating: 24
3-week Abacus rating: 29
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 29
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 29]

5-16, .238; 5th in Pacific Division / 13th seed / 25th overall (tied)
KK:  -6; (3 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -21; (.512 [8th] - .533 [30th]) / No. 24 overall
SPOR-t:  -27; (578 [7th] – 605 [29th]) / No. 22 overall

No. 27 Minnesota Timberwolves (106.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 28
3-week Abacus rating: 26
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 21
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 11]

4-16, .200; 5th in Northwest Division / 15th seed / 27th overall
KK:  -6; (2 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -29; (.494 [18th] - .523 [29th]) / No. 27 overall
SPOR-t:  -48; (554 [17th] – 602 [28th]) / No. 28 overall

No. 28 New York Knicks (108)
[6-week ESPN rating: 27
3-week Abacus rating: 25
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 5
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 23]

4-18, .182; 4th in Atlantic Division / 13th seed / 28th overall
KK:  -8; (1 Road Win – 9 Home Losses) / No. 28 overall (tied)
CQ:  -32; (.480 [25th] - .512 [25th]) / No. 28 overall
SPOR-t:  -35; (555 [15th] – 590 [27th]) / No. 24 overall (tied)

No. 29 Detroit Pistons (109.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 30
3-week Abacus rating: 27
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 24
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 18]

3-18, .143; 5th in Central Division / 14th seed / 29th overall
KK:  -9; (1 Road Win – 10 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall (tied)
CQ:  -28; (.471 [28th] - .499 [18th]) / No. 26 overall
SPOR-t:  -38; (526 [26th] – 564 [18th]) / No. 25 overall

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (118.5)
[6-week ESPN rating: 29
3-week Abacus rating: 30
'13-'14 4th "Quarter" Abacus rating: 30
'13-'14 3rd "Quarter" Abacus rating: 30]

2-18, .100; 5th in Atlantic Division / 15th seed / 30th overall
KK:  -9; (2 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall (tied)
CQ:  -40; (.455 [30th] - .495 [11th]) / No. 30 overall
SPOR-t:  -65; (477 [30th] – 542 [8th]) / No. 29 overall

Power Ratings --The Measurement Instrument

Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference.

The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of veteran NBA coach George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).

Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into a successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the opponent.

Lastly, please allow Abacus to introduce the “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o. boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on .143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.

We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.