Here’s a head-scratcher for ya –
in three fewer games played this season, Elena Della Donne has two more
defensive rebounds than Brittney Griner. In an average 2016 game, a team will
miss 36 or 37 field goal attempts. Griner is corralling just under five opponent
misses per game – which has pretty much been the story of her WNBA career.
While a blocked shot can be
intimidating, strong consistent defensive board work that leads to a string of one-and-done
possessions will break a team’s spirit. Just imagine if BG were to get eight or
10 defensive rebounds in a regularly!
Curiously, while the league’s
overall FG shooting slipped a bit -- .437, compared with .442 prior to the
Olympic break – the ladies were more accurate (.369, up from .338) on long
balls
On average through 175 games, a
team scores 81.1 points, making 29.73 FG’s on 67.45 attempts (.441), 5.39 for
15.72 (.343) on treys, and converting 16.95 of 21.17 (.801) free throws. Teams
snatch 35.74 rebounds, of which 9.07 come off the offensive glass, and commit
12.93 TO’s. A team endures 41.58 empty possessions each game and posts a SPOR-t
score of 550
The following data reflects play
through Tuesday, Sept.6.
[Clerical Note: The post-Olympic
schedule covers 24 calendar days, so I’ve split this portion of the season into
two 12-day, 29-game segments.]
We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 12 in all criteria and simply
add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.
(The criteria is explained below.)
No.
1 Los Angeles Sparks, 24-6 (12)
[10-week Abacus rating: 1
8-week Abacus rating: 1
6-week Abacus rating: 1
4-week Abacus rating: 1
2-week Abacus rating: 1
2015 Abacus rating: 10]
KK: +10; (12 Road
Wins – 2 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow: +3.73; (41.90
stops OF opp [No.5] – 38.17 stops BY opp [No.1] / No.2 overall
Striping: +0.47;
(+0.98) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.52) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t: +28; (562 [No.
5] – 534 [No. 3]) / No. 4 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sparks post-Olympic scoring has dropped to 76.2 points per game, down 9.6
from the league leading total after 10 weeks.
No.
2 Minnesota Lynx, 25-5 (14)
[10-week Abacus rating: 2
8-week Abacus rating: 2
6-week Abacus rating: 1
4-week Abacus rating: 2
2-week Abacus rating: 2
2015 Abacus rating: 2]
KK: +9; (11 Road Wins
– 2 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall
Flow: +6.07; (45.33 stops
OF opp [No.1] – 39.27 stops BY opp [No.2] / No.1 overall
Striping: -0.80;
(+0.08) conversions [No. 10] – (+0.88) opp conversions [No.9] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t: +139; (614
[No. 2] – 475 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall
Abacus Revelation:
Only the ninth-best three-point shooters after 10 weeks, the Lynx drained 38.2%
of their August treys, best in the “W.”
No.
3 New York Liberty, 20-9 (19)
[10-week Abacus rating: 3
8-week Abacus rating: 3
6-week Abacus rating: 4
4-week Abacus rating: 4
2-week Abacus rating: 6
2015 Abacus rating: 1]
KK: +6; (11 Road Wins
– 5 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall
Flow: +2.34; (44.34 stops
OF opp [No.2] – 42.00 stops BY opp [No.7] / No. 3 overall
Striping: -1.17;
(-0.22) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.95) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 11
overall
SPOR-t: +79; (575
[No. 3] – 496 [No. 2]) / No. 2 overall
Abacus Revelation:
New York’s three-point defense, among the league’s best pre-Olympics, fell to
No. 10 (.377) since then.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 1)
Which teams are
performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of
the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point
shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and
the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively
and defensively:
FG%: Chicago, Los
Angeles, Minnesota
3FG%: Los Angeles,
New York
PPG: Los Angeles,
Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New
York
TO%: Minnesota
SPOR-t: Chicago,
Minnesota, New York
No.
4 Chicago Sky, 15-13 (21)
[10-week Abacus rating: 4
8-week Abacus rating: 6
6-week Abacus rating: 3
4-week Abacus rating: 3
2-week Abacus rating: 6
2015 Abacus rating: 3]
KK: 0; (6 Road Wins –
6 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)-3
Flow: +1.75; (41.57
stops OF opp [No.7] – 39.82 stops BY opp [No.3] / No.4 overall
Striping: -0.48;
(+0.63) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.11) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t: +76; (617
[No. 1] – 541 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall
Abacus Revelation:
In Weeks 11 and 12, the Sky committed a turnover on just one of ten possessions
(.094).
No.
5 Indiana Fever, 14-15 (24)
[10-week Abacus rating: 5
8-week Abacus rating: 4
6-week Abacus rating: 9
4-week Abacus rating: 7
-week Abacus rating: 5
2015 Abacus rating: 4]
KK: 0; (8 Road Wins –
8 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)-3
Flow: -2.07; (39.66 stops
OF opp [No.10] – 41.72 stops BY opp [No.5] / No.9 overall
Striping: +0.98;
(+1.14) conversions [No. 4] – (+0.16) conversions [No. 3] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t: -11; (537
[No. 8] – 548 [No. 5]) / No. 7 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Fever’s respectable 45% FG shooting has tumbled to 41%, second-worst in the
league, since the hiatus.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace, Weeks
11 & 12 (29 games)
100+ points: 0 [11 overall – 3.1%]
90-99 points: 12 [76 overall – 21.7%]
80-89 points: 18 [108 overall – 30.9%]
70-79 points: 20 [112 overall – 32.0 %]
60-69 points: 8 [39 overall – 11.1%]
<60 points: 0 [4 overall – 1.1%]
No.
6 Phoenix Mercury, 13-17 (27.5)
[10-week Abacus rating: 8
8-week
Abacus rating: 10
6-week Abacus rating: 10
4-week Abacus rating: 11
2-week Abacus rating: 12
2015 Abacus rating: 4]
KK: -2; (4 Road Wins
– 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
Flow: +0.27; (42.07 stops
OF opp [No.4] – 41.80 stops BY opp [No.6] / No.6 overall
Striping: -0.12;
(+1.13 conversions [No. 5] – (+1.02) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t: -56; (509
[No. 10] – 565 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall
Abacus Revelation:
During Weeks 11 & 12, the sloppy Mercury committed a TO on one out of every
five possessions.
No.
7 Atlanta Dream, 15-14 (28)
[10-week Abacus rating: 6
8-week Abacus rating: 7
6-week Abacus rating: 6
4-week Abacus rating: 4
2-week Abacus rating: 3
2015 Abacus rating: 8]
KK: 0; (5 Road Wins –
5 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall) (tied)-3
Flow: +0.79; (42.93 stops
OF opp [No.3] – 42.14 stops BY opp [No.8] / No.5 overall
Striping: -1.43;
(-1.48) conversions [No. 12] – (-0.05) conversions [No. 1] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t: +4; (564 [No.
4] – 560 [No. 7]) / No. 6 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The league’s worst three-point shooters stroked their long balls at an impressive
36% during Weeks 11 and 12.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential,
Weeks 11 & 12 (29 games)
1-5 points: 7 [48 overall – 27.4%]
6-10 points: 9 [61 overall – 34.9%]
11-15 points: 7 [30 overall – 17.1%]
16-20 points: 0 [13 overall – 7.4%]
>20: 6 [23 overall – 13.1%]
No.
8 Seattle Storm, 12-17 (29.5)
[10-week Abacus rating: 11
8-week
Abacus rating: 9
6-week Abacus rating: 8
4-week Abacus rating: 8
2-week Abacus rating: 10
2015 Abacus rating: 11]
KK: -3; (4 Road Wins
– 7 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow: -1.07; (40.07 stops
OF opp [No. 9] – 41.14 stops BY opp [No.4] / No.7 overall
Striping: +1.19;
(+1.91) conversions [No. 1] - (+0.72) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t: -90; (500
[No. 11] – 590 [No. 11]) / No. 12 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The league’s worst rebounders have been showing some life, averaging nine OR;s
during Weeks 11 and 12.
No.
9 Connecticut Sun, 11-18 (30.5)
[10-week Abacus rating: 9
8-week Abacus rating: 11
6-week Abacus rating: 12
4-week Abacus rating: 12
2-week Abacus rating: 8
2015 Abacus rating: 9]
KK: -3; (5 Road Wins
– 8 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow: -1.86; (41.66
stops OF opp [No.6] – 43.52 stops BY opp [No.11] / No.8 overall
Striping: -0.34;
(+0.10) conversions [No. 9] – (+0.45) conversions [No. 4] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t: +12; (561
[No. 6] – 549 [No. 5]) / No. 5 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sun forced a TO on 21% of opponent possessions during Weeks 11 & 12.
No. 10
Washington Mystics, 11-17 (31)
[10-week Abacus rating: 9
8-week Abacus rating: 8
6-week Abacus rating: 7
4-week Abacus rating: 8
2-week Abacus rating: 9
2015 Abacus rating: 7]
KK: -2; (7 Road Wins
– 9 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
Flow: -2.14; (40.29 stops
OF opp [No.8] – 42.43 stops BY opp [No.9] / No.10 overall
Striping: +0.50;
(+1.16) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.66) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t: -58; (513
[No. 9] – 571 [No.10]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation:
During Weeks 11 and 12, the Mystics were best in the league (.217) in defending
the three-ball.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 2)
Are not the exceptionally
inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four
offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting,
three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t..
FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Connecticut, Indiana,
San Antonio
PPG: N/A
OR%: San Antonio,
Seattle
TO%: New York, Seattle
SPOR-t: San Antonio,
Seattle, Washington
No.
11 Dallas Wings, 9-21 (34.5)
[10-week Abacus rating: 7
8-week Abacus rating: 4
6-week Abacus rating: 5
4-week Abacus rating: 6
2-week Abacus rating: 4
2015 Abacus rating: 6]
KK: -6; (4 Road Wins
– 10 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow: -4.47; (39.57 stops
OF opp [No.11] – 44.03 stops BY opp [No.12] / No.12 overall
Striping: +1.12;
(+1.18) conversions [No. 2] – (+0.07) conversions [No. 2] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t: -58; (546
[No. 7] – 604 [No. 12]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation:
The Wings gave shot 38% from the field in their last ten outings.
No.
12 San Antonio Stars, 6-23 (41)
[10-week
Abacus rating: 12
8-week
Abacus rating: 12
6-week Abacus rating: 11
4-week Abacus rating: 10
2-week Abacus rating: 10
2015 Abacus rating: 12]
KK: -8; (2 Road Wins
– 10 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow: -3.55; (39.48 stops
OF opp [No.12] – 43.03 stops BY opp [No.10] / No.11 overall
Striping: -0.17;
(+0.36) conversions [No. 8] – (+0.53) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t: -81; (487
[No. 11] – 568 [No.8]) / No. 11 overall
Abacus Revelation:
In a statistical oddity, the Stars and their opponents have each attempted 1897
field goals in 29 games.
The Grading Scale
“Flow”: this calculation puts a number to a team’s
unsuccessful possessions (i.e. the other guys’ “stops”). Just take their missed
field goals (attempts minus makes), subtract the offensive rebounds, and then
add the turnovers. The “scores” represent per-game performance.
“Striping”: this calculation measures the impact of missed
free throws and made treys. By subtracting the former from the latter [3’s
minus missed FT’s], we identify a team’s gain or loss in points through
“specialty shooting.” Again the “scores” are per-game. (A further division by
two converts “points” to “conversions” – thus they can be combined with the
“Flow” score.)
KK: Karl Kount – named for George Karl – is a way to measure
a team’s grit and savvy through its ability to defend its home court and win on
the road, a simple calculation for generally reliable info.
“SPOR-t”: SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus
Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its
offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o.
boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a
team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at
a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on
.143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our
measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its
opposition.