NBA 2013-14: Fourth Quarter Power Rankings (3/4 – 4/16)

What’s up with this year’s NBA Playoffs? With today’s Dallas Maverick home victory over San Antonio, seven of the eight underdogs, including both No. 8 seeds, have held a lead in their opening-round series—not in points, but rather in games won! Only Miami has progressed thus far unscathed, due perhaps to Big Al Jefferson’s unpronounceable foot injury.

For fun, let’s suppose for a minute that the NBA’s playoff participants and pairings were determined by the results of the season’s final six weeks of play. The Western Conference would offer the same eight teams, but matched as follows: San Antonio (1) vs. Portland (8); LA Clippers (2) vs. Houston (7); Memphis (3) vs. Dallas (6); and Golden State (4) vs. Oklahoma City (5). The East would give us two series actually occurring, Toronto (4) vs. Brooklyn (5) and Chicago (3) vs. Washington (6). As a second seed, Charlotte would face Atlanta (7), while the eighth-seeded Miami Heat would have begun defense of their title in Madison Square Garden. Indiana might have become historically infamous for tanking, huh?

Of course, ignoring 75 percent of the playing schedule is ludicrous.

But investing some comparative analysis in the last leg of the long journey can provide some predictive insight.

Power Rankings --The Measurement Instrument

Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference or division.

The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of long-time NBA coach and current ESPN voice George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).

Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the other guys.

Lastly, please allow Horatio N. Proportion to introduce his “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by missed FG’s). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, its offensive rebounds account for .199 of its missed field goals, and .143 of its possessions result in a turnover. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.

We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.

Teams in BOLD are 2014 Playoff Participants

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (8)

19-4, .826; 1^st in Western Conference / 1^st overall

KK:  +7; (8 Road Wins – 1 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +37; (.516 [8^th] - .479 [3^rd]) / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  +71; (573 [6^th] – 502 [1^st]) / No. 2 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 17

No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies (10)

16-7, .696; 3^rd in Western Conference / 5^th overall

KK:  +7; (7 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +41; (.519 [5^th] - .478 [2^nd]) / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  +89; (606 [1^st] – 517 [5^th]) / No. 1 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 1

No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers (13)

16-5, .762; 2^nd in Western Conference / 2^nd overall (tied)

KK:  +5; (7 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall (tied)

CQ:  +42; (.532 [1^st] - .490 [8^th]) / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  +45; (587 [4^th] – 542 [14^th]) / No.  5 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 5

No. 4 Charlotte Bobcats (17.5)

16-6, .727; 2^nd in Eastern Conference / 4^th overall

KK:  +4; (6 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)

CQ:  +31; (.511 [13^th] - .480 [4^th]) / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  +59; (566 [10^th] – 5107 [2^nd]) / No. 3 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 13

No. 5 New York Knicks (23.5)

16-5, .762; 1^st in Eastern Conference / 2^nd overall (tied)

KK:  +7; (9 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +20; (.519 [6^th] - .499 [12^th]) / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  +7; (569 [8^th] – 562 [19^th]) / No. 13 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 23

No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder (31.5)

14-8, .636; 5^th in Western Conference / 9^th overall

KK:  +5; (6 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 4 overall (tied)

CQ:  +18; (.512 [11^th] - .494 [10^th]) / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  +23; (546 [21^st] – 523 [7^th]) / No. 11 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 4

No. 7 Golden State Warriors (32)

15-7, .682; 4^th in Western Conference / 6^th overall (tied)

KK:  +12; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +17; (.506 [18^th] - .489 [7^th]) / No. 8 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +48; (559 [15^th] – 511 [4^th]) / No. 4 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 12

No. 8 Houston Rockets (35.5)

14-9, .609; 7^th in Western Conference / 12^th overall

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 8 overall (tied**)

CQ:  +23; (.524 [3^rd] - .501 [14^th]) / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  +28; (570 [7^th] – 542 [14^th]) / No. 9 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 2  

No. 9 Chicago Bulls (36.5)

15-7, .682; 3^rd in Eastern Conference / 6^th overall (tied)

KK:  +3; (6 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied**)

CQ:  +17; (.491 [24^th] - .474 [1^st]) / No. 8 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +15; (525 [23^rd] – 510 [3^rd]) / No. 12 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 7

No. 10 Phoenix Suns (45.5)

13-10, .565; 5^th in Western Conference / 15^th overall

KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)

CQ:  +9; (.512 [12^th] - .503 [15^th]) / No. 14 overall

SPOR-t:  +24; (563 [12^th] – 539 [12^th]) / No. 10 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 14  

No. 11 Washington Wizards (46)

13-9, .591; 6^th in Eastern Conference / 13^th overall (tied)

KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +14; (.502 [19^th] - .488 [6^th]) / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +33; (560 [13^th] – 527 [9^th]) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 9

No. 12 Toronto Raptors (51.5)

15-8, .652; 4^th in Eastern Conference / 8^th overall

KK:  +3; (6 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -6; (.509 [14^th] - .515 [23^rd]) / No. 20 overall

SPOR-t:  +4; (548 [14^th] – 544 [16^th]) / No. 14 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 9  

No. 13 Dallas Mavericks (55.5)

13-8, .619; 6th in Western Conference / 11^th overall

KK:  +1; (6 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 15 overall (tied)

CQ:  +10; (.516 [10^th] - .506 [18^th]) / No. 13 overall

SPOR-t:  -2; 580 [5^th] – 582 [25^th]) / No. 16 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 8  

No. 14 Cleveland Cavaliers (59.5)

9-12, .429; 10^th in Eastern Conference / 22^nd overall

KK:  -2; (5 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +16; (.507 [16^th] - .491 [9^th]) / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +33; (554 [17^th] – 521 [6^th]) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 15  

No. 15 Portland Trail Blazers (60.5)

13-9, .591; 8^th in Western Conference / 13^th overall (tied)

KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -3; (.501 [21^st] - .504 [16^th]) / No. 18 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -13; (556 [16^th] – 569 [21^st]) / No. 19 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 19

No.16 Sacramento Kings (65.5)

7-15, .318; 13^th in Western Conference / 23^rd overall

KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +2; (.508 [15^th] - .506 [17^th]) / No. 16 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +34; (560 [13^th] – 526 [8^th]) / No. 6 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 21  

No. 17 Miami Heat (68)

11-14, .440; 8^th in Eastern Conference / 19^th overall

KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall (tied*)

CQ:  +15; (.501 [20^th] - .486 [5^th]) / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  -8 (524 [25^th] – 532 [10^th]) / No. 18 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 3  

No. 18 Brooklyn Nets (68.5)

15-9, .625; 5^th in Eastern Conference / 10^th overall

KK:  +2; (4 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied*)

CQ:  -3; (.507 [17^th] - .510 [20^th]) / No. 18 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -51; (525 [23^rd] – 576 [23^rd]) / No. 27 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 16  

No. 19 New Orleans Pelicans (69)

11-11, .500; 12^th in Western Conference / 16^th overall (tied)

KK:  -3; (2 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 22 overall (tied)

CQ:  +8; (.523 [4^th] - .515 [22^nd]) / No. 15 overall

SPOR-t:  +2; (565 [16^th] – 563 [20^th]) / No. 15 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 22  

No. 20 Denver Nuggets (73)

11-12, .478; 11^th in Western Conference / 18^th overall

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 17 overall

CQ:  -10; (.501 [22^nd] - .511 [21^st]) / No. 21 overall

SPOR-t:  -6; (548 [19^th] – 554 [18^th]) / No. 17 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 27

No. 21 Indiana Pacers (84)

10-13, .435; 9^th in Eastern Conference / 20^th overall (tied)

KK:  +1; (4 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 15 overall (tied)

CQ:  -21; (.474 [30^th] - .495 [11^th]) / No. 23 overall

SPOR-t:  -44; (495 [29^th] – 539 [12^th]) / No. 25 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 5

No. 21 Minnesota Timberwolves (84)

10-13, .435; 12^th in Western Conference / 20^th overall (tied)

KK:  -4; (2 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 24 overall

CQ:  +2; (.518 [7^th] - .516 [24^th]) / No. 16 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -26; (569 [8^th] – 595 [27^th]) / No. 23 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 11

No. 23 Atlanta Hawks (87.5)

12-12, .500; 7^th in Eastern Conference / 16^th overall (tied)

KK:  -1; (5 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall

CQ:  -23; (.477 [29^th] - .500 [13^th]) / No. 25 overall

SPOR-t:  -60; (478 [30^th] – 538 [11^th]) / No. 28 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 26

No. 24 Detroit Pistons (92)

5-17, .227; 11^th in Eastern Conference / 25^th overall (tied)

KK:  -3; (2 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 22 overall (tied)

CQ:  -22; (.516 [9^th] - .538 [29^th]) / No. 24 overall

SPOR-t:  -14; (605 [25^th] – 619 [30^th]) / No. 20 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 18  

No. 25 Milwaukee Bucks (99.5)

3-20, .130; 15^th in Eastern Conference / 30^th overall

KK:  -6; (0 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -14; (.526 [2^nd] - .540 [30^th]) / No. 22 overall

SPOR-t:  -16; (597 [3^rd] – 613 [28^th]) / No. 21 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 28

No. 26 Orlando Magic (106.5)

4-16, .200; 13^th in Eastern Conference / 27^th overall

KK:  -8; (0 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall (tied)

CQ:  -30; (.480 [26^th] - .510 [19^th]) / No. 26 overall

SPOR-t:  -32; 521 [26^th] – 553 [17^th]) / No. 24 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 20

No. 27 Utah Jazz (107)

4-18, .182; 11^th in Western Conference / 28^th overall (tied)

KK:  -8; (1 Road Win – 9 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall (tied)

CQ:  -37; (.495 [23^rd] - .532 [26^th]) / No. 27 overall

SPOR-t:  -21; (550 [18^th] – 571 [22^nd]) / No. 22 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 25

No. 28 Boston Celtics (108)

5-17, .227; 11^th in Eastern Conference / 25^th overall (tied)

KK:  -6; (1 Road Win – 7 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -53; (.479 [28^th] - .532 [27^th]) / No. 30 overall

SPOR-t:  -47; (541 [22^nd] – 588 [26^th]) / No. 26 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 24  

No. 29 Los Angeles Lakers (108.5)

6-16, .273; 14^th in Western Conference / 24^th overall

KK:  -6; (3 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -48; (.488 [25^th] - .536 [28^th]) / No. 28 overall

SPOR-t:  -114; (499 [28^th] – 613 [28^th]) / No. 30 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 29

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (113)

4-18, .182; 15^th in Eastern Conference / 28^th overall (tied)

KK:  -6; (2 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied**)

CQ:  -49; (.480 [27^th] - .529 – [28^th]) / No. 29 overall

SPOR-t:  -68; (512 [27^th] – 580 [24^th]) / No. 29 overall

Third Quarter (1/21 – 3/3) Rating: No. 30