Saturday, January 10, 2015

NBA 2014 9-week power Ratings

No. 1 Golden State Warriors (10)
[9-week ESPN rating: 2
6-week Abacus rating: 1
3-week Abacus rating: 5]

24-5, .828; 1st in Pacific Division / 1st seed / 1st overall
KK:  +12; (13 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
CQ:  +31; (.503 [12th] - .472 [1st]) / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +31; (556 [17th] – 525 [2nd]) / No. 4 overall (tied)*
Abacus Revelation: The Warriors rank No. 1 in both FG offense and FG defense.

No. 2 Toronto Raptors (14)
[9-week ESPN rating: 5
6-week Abacus rating: 7
3-week Abacus rating: 7]

24-7, .774; 1st in Atlantic Division / 1st seed / 3rd overall
KK:  +7; (10 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
CQ:  +28; (.531 [1st] - .503 [22nd]) / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  +45; (617 [1st] – 572 [21st]) / No. 2 overall

No. 3 Memphis Grizzlies (17.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 7
6-week Abacus rating: 2
3-week Abacus rating: 1]

22-8, .733; 1st in Southwest Division / 3rd seed / 4th overall (tied)*
KK:  +6; (10 Road Wins – 4 Home Loss) / No. 5 overall (tied)
CQ:  +32; (.518 [3rd] - .486 [8th]) / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +31; (584 [4th] – 553 [13th]) / No. 4 overall (tied)*

No. 4 Dallas Mavericks (20.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 8
6-week Abacus rating: 3
3-week Abacus rating: 2]

22-10, .688; 3rd in Southwest Division / 5th seed / 9th overall
KK:  +5; (10 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
CQ:  +33; (.529 [2nd] - .496 [16th]) / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  +35; (609 [2nd] – 574 [22nd]) / No. 3 overall

No. 4 Washington Wizards (20.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 11
6-week Abacus rating: 5
3-week Abacus rating: 4]

22-8, .733; 1st in Southeast Division / 2nd seed / 4th overall (tied)*
KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)**
CQ:  +29; (.510 [9th] - .481 [4th]) / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  +64; (578 [7th] – 514 [1st]) / No. 1 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Wizards are the league’s most accurate three-point shooting team.

No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers (22.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 3
6-week Abacus rating: 5
3-week Abacus rating: 9]

25-7, .781; 1st in Northwest Division / 2nd seed / 2nd overall
KK:  +9; (11 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied)
CQ:  +9; (.493 [19th] - .484 [6th]) / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +24; (565 [12th] – 541 [6th]) / No. 7 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Blazers are top five in both three-point shooting and three-point defense, No. 1 in the latter.

No. 7 Chicago Bulls (29)
[9-week ESPN rating: 1
6-week Abacus rating: 11
3-week Abacus rating: 8]

22-9, .710; 1st in Central Division / 4th seed / 7th overall
KK:  +9; (14 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied)
CQ:  +20; (.513 [8th] - .493 [12th]) / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +11; (577 [8th] – 566 [20th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (30)
[9-week ESPN rating: 4
6-week Abacus rating: 13
3-week Abacus rating: 15]

22-8, .733; 1st in Southeast Division / 2nd seed / 4th overall (tied)*
KK:  +6; (9 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
CQ:  +17; (.495 [16th] - .478 [3rd]) / No. 7 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +15; (525 [27th] – 540 [8th]) / No. 12 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Hawks boast the league’s third most efficient defense (.478).

No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers (36.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 10
6-week Abacus rating: 8
3-week Abacus rating: 19]

21-11, .656; 2nd in Pacific Division / 6th seed / 10th overall
KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)**
CQ:  +17; (.518 [4th] - .501 [19th]) / No. 7 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +21; (559 [15th] – 540 [8th]) / No.  8 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: The Clippers putrid offensive rebounding (No.26, .217) is offset by tgheir prevention of the same (No. 4, .231).

No. 10 Houston Rockets (39.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 6
6-week Abacus rating: 9
3-week Abacus rating: 3]

21-9, .700; 2nd in Southwest Division / 4th seed / 8th overall
KK:  +5; (11 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
CQ:  +4; (.479 [28th] - .475 [2nd]) / No. 13 overall
SPOR-t:  +17; (543 [22nd] – 526 [3rd]) / No. 11 overall
Abacus Revelation: The league’s top scorer leads its 28th most efficient offense. Hmm.

No. 11 San Antonio Spurs (40)
[9-week ESPN rating: 9
6-week Abacus rating: 4
3-week Abacus rating: 10]

19-13, .594; 4th in Southwest Division / 7th seed / 12th overall
KK:  +4; (9 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)**
CQ:  +16; (.501 [13th] - .485 [7th]) / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  +21; (549 [20th] – 528 [5th]) / No. 8 overall (tied)

No. 12 Cleveland Cavaliers (51)
[9-week ESPN rating: 15
6-week Abacus rating: 10
3-week Abacus rating: 12]

18-12, .600; 2nd in Central Division / 5th seed / 11th overall
KK:  +1; (7 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 15 overall
CQ:  +14; (.514 [7th] - .500 [17th]) / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  +5; (583 [5th] – 578 [24th]) / No. 15 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Cavaliers’ opposition has attempted the fewest free throws in the league.

No. 13 New Orleans Pelicans (52.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 13
6-week Abacus rating: 14
3-week Abacus rating: 11]

15-15, .500; 5th in Southwest Division / 9th seed / 14th overall (tied)
KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 14 overall
CQ:  -1; (.515 [6th] - .516 [27th]) / No. 14 overall
SPOR-t:  +18; (600 [3rd] – 582 [26th]) / No. 10 overall

No. 14 Oklahoma City Thunder (58.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 14
6-week Abacus rating: 22
3-week Abacus rating: 28]

15-17, .469; 2nd in Northwest Division / 10th seed / 16th overall
KK:  0; (7 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 16 overall (tied)
CQ:  -11; (.493 [17th] - .482 [5th]) / No. 21 overall
SPOR-t:  +31; (567 [11th] – 536 [7th]) / No. 4 overall (tied)*
Abacus Revelation: Through six weeks, the Thunder averaging 92.5 points per games; during weeks 7-9, they’ve posted 107.2.

No. 15 Phoenix Suns (62)
[9-week ESPN rating: 12
6-week Abacus rating: 15
3-week Abacus rating: 18]

18-14, .563; 3rd in Pacific Division / 8th seed / 13th overall
KK:  +4; (11 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)**
CQ:  -10; (.493 [18th] - .503 [21st]) / No. 19 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -11; (552 [19th] – 563 [18th]) / No. 19 overall

No. 16 Milwaukee Bucks (65)
[9-week ESPN rating: 16
6-week Abacus rating: 16
3-week Abacus rating: 13]

16-16, .500; 3rd in Central Division / 6th seed / 14th overall (tied)
KK:  +3; (9 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 13 overall
CQ:  -5; (.487 [23rd] - .492 [11th]) / No. 15 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -17; (538 [23rd] – 555 [14th]) / No. 22 overall

No.17 Sacramento Kings (68)
[9-week ESPN rating: 18
6-week Abacus rating: 12
3-week Abacus rating: 6]

13-18, .419; 4th in Pacific Division / 11th seed / 19th overall (tied)
KK:  -5; (5 Road Wins – 10 Home Losses) / No. 23 overall
CQ:  +7; (.517 [5th] - .510 [23rd]) / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +11; (582 [6th] – 571 [25th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: It’s tough to consider the Kings playoff material when they have the fourth highest turnover rate and are dead last at forcing them.

No. 18 Brooklyn Nets (77)
[9-week ESPN rating: 21
6-week Abacus rating: 19
3-week Abacus rating: 15]

14-16, .467; 2nd in Atlantic Division / 7th seed / 17th overall
KK:  -2; (6 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall
CQ:  -7; (.487 [22nd] - .494 [13th]) / No. 17 overall
SPOR-t:  -31; (529 [25th] – 560 [16th]) / No. 25 overall

No. 19 Boston Celtics (79)
[9-week ESPN rating: 27
6-week Abacus rating: 18
3-week Abacus rating: 17]

10-18, .357; 3rd in Atlantic Division / 10th seed / 22nd overall
KK:  -6; (3 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 24 overall (tied)
CQ:  -5; (.490 [21st] - .495 [15th]) / No. 15 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +3; (555 [18th] – 552 [12th]) / No. 16 overall (tied)*

No. 19 Denver Nuggets (79)
[9-week ESPN rating: 24
6-week Abacus rating: 17
3-week Abacus rating: 24]

13-18, .419; 3rd in Northwest Division / 11th seed / 19th overall (tied)
KK:  -3; (4 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall
CQ:  -20; (.491 [20th] - .511 [25th]) / No. 23 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +3; (565 [12th] – 562 [17th]) / No. 16 overall (tied)*
Abacus Revelation: Denver’s opponents have attempted the most (879) free throws in the league.

No. 21 Indiana Pacers (86)
[9-week ESPN rating: 19
6-week Abacus rating: 23
3-week Abacus rating: 23]

11-21, .344; 4th in Central Division / 11th seed / 23rd overall
KK:  -4 (5 Road Wins – 9 Home Loss) / No. 20 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -22; (.473 [29th] - .495 [14th]) / No. 25 overall
SPOR-t:  +3; (532 [24th] – 529 [6th]) / No. 16 overall (tied)*
Abacus Revelation: The Pacers rank in the top ten in field goal defense and defending the three-point shot.

No. 22 Utah Jazz (87)
[9-week ESPN rating: 20
6-week Abacus rating: 25
3-week Abacus rating: 22]

10-21, .323; 4th in Northwest Division / 13th seed / 24th overall
KK:  -4; (5 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -13; (.504 [11th] - .517 [28th]) / No. 22 overall
SPOR-t:  -12; (575 [10th] – 587 [27th]) / No. 20 overall

No. 23 Miami Heat (87.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 17
6-week Abacus rating: 21
3-week Abacus rating: 14]

14-18, .438; 3rd in Southeast Division / 8th seed / 18th overall
KK:  -4; (8 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -10; (.500 [14th] - .510 [24th]) / No. 19 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -52; (523 [28th] – 575 [23rd]) / No. 29 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Heat force a turnover on one of six opponent possessions, fourth best in the league.

No. 24 Charlotte Hornets (92)
[9-week ESPN rating: 22
6-week Abacus rating: 24
3-week Abacus rating: 21]

10-22, .313; 5th in Southeast Division / 12th seed / 25th overall
KK:  -8; (3 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 26 overall
CQ:  -8; (.483 [24th] - .491 [10th]) / No. 18 overall
SPOR-t:  -21; (528 [26th] – 526 [3rd]) / No. 23 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Hornets are No. 1 in limiting opponent offensive rebounds (.197) and in taking care of the ball (.117).

No. 24 Orlando Magic (92)
[9-week ESPN rating: 23
6-week Abacus rating: 20
3-week Abacus rating: 20]

13-21, .382; 4th in Southeast Division / 9th seed / 21st overall
KK:  0; (9 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 16 overall (tied)
CQ:  -24; (.479 [27th] - .503 [20th]) / No. 26 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -47; (513 [29th] – 555 [14th]) / No. 28 overall
Abacus Revelation: After a shaky start, the Magic have placed in the top five in three-point shooting for several weeks now.

No. 26 Detroit Pistons (99)
[9-week ESPN rating: 25
6-week Abacus rating: 29
3-week Abacus rating: 27]

7-23, .233; 5th in Central Division / 13th seed / 27th overall
KK:  -9; (4 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall (tied)
CQ:  -20; (.481 [25th] - .501 [18th]) / No. 23 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -16; (548 [21st] – 564 [19th]) / No. 21 overall
Abacus Revelation: Last season’s best offensive rebounding team has slipped to ninth.

No. 27 Los Angeles Lakers (101)
[9-week ESPN rating: 26
6-week Abacus rating: 26
3-week Abacus rating: 29]

9-22, .290; 5th in Pacific Division / 14th seed / 26th overall
KK:  -6; (5 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 24 overall (tied)
CQ:  -24; (.505 [10th] - .529 [30th]) / No. 26 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -22; (577 [8th] – 599 [28th]) / No. 24 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Lakers commit a turnover on one in eight possessions, third best in the circuit.

No. 28 Minnesota Timberwolves (110.5)
[9-week ESPN rating: 30
6-week Abacus rating: 27
3-week Abacus rating: 26]

5-24, .172; 5th in Northwest Division / 15th seed / 28th overall
KK:  -9; (2 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall (tied)
CQ:  -25; (.496 [15th] - .521 [29th]) / No. 28 overall
SPOR-t:  -44; (562 [14th] – 606 [30th]) / No. 27 overall
Abacus Revelation: The T’wolves are the only Western Conference team averaging less than a point per possession.

No. 29 New York Knicks (114)
[9-week ESPN rating: 29
6-week Abacus rating: 28
3-week Abacus rating: 25]

5-28, .152; 4th in Atlantic Division / 14th seed / 29th overall
KK:  -11; (2 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 30 overall
CQ:  -36; (.480 [26th] - .516 [26th]) / No. 29 overall
SPOR-t:  -42; (558 [16th] – 600 [29th]) / No. 26 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Knicks rank dead last in defending the 3-point shot and allowing offensive rebounds.

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (119)
[9-week ESPN rating: 28
6-week Abacus rating: 30
3-week Abacus rating: 30]

4-25, .138; 5th in Atlantic Division / 15th seed / 30th overall
KK:  -10; (4 Road Wins – 14 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall
CQ:  -38; (.450 [30th] - .488 [11th]) / No. 30 overall
SPOR-t:  -82; (467 [30th] – 549 [8th]) / No. 30 overall

Abacus Revelation: While dreadful offensively, the Sixers are top ten in defensive efficiency, No. 1 in forcing turnovers.

Power Ratings --The Measurement Instrument
Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference.
The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of veteran NBA coach George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).
Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into a successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the opponent.
Lastly, please allow Abacus to introduce the “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o. boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on .143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.
We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.