NBA 2015-16: 3-week Power Ratings

While the NBA’s two most complete and elite units still reside there, there is reason to believe that the vastly superior Western Conference is beginning to yield some of its overall supremacy.

Through three weeks of play, the ranking of seven teams had dropped eight or more positions from what it had been for the 2014-15 regular season – all playoff teams, five from the West. Conversely, seven teams have improved as much, five of them Eastern Conference squads.

Miami has shown the most growth (+19), while Houston’s -18 represents the largest fall-off.

With 12-and-a-half percent of the calendar elapsed, should trends still be dismissed on the basis of a small sample size?

Ratings reflect the first 21 days of play – through games of Monday, Nov.16.

The grading scale is explained below the ratings.

(For comparison purposes, Final 2014-15 data is available here.)

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (6.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 4

ESPN 3-week Rating: 2]

8-2, .800; 1^st in Southwest Division / 2^nd seed / 2^nd overall (tied)

KK:  +4; (4 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall

CQ:  +48; (.497 [6^th] - .449 [1^st]) / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  +95; (561 [4^th] – 466 [1^st]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: Very quietly, the Spurs have been the league’s best FG shooters through the season’s first three weeks.

No. 2 Golden State Warriors (7)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 1

ESPN 3-week Rating: 1]

11-0, 1.000; 1^st in Pacific Division / 1^st seed / 1^st overall

KK:  +5; (5 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall

CQ:  +36; (.509 [3^rd] - .462 [4^th]) / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  +75; (581 [2^nd] – 506 [10^th]) / No. 3 overall  

Abacus Revelation: The Warriors have quietly snuck into the “Turnover Top Tens,” and are best in the league at both making and defending the three-ball.

No. 3 Cleveland Cavaliers (17.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 7

ESPN 3-week Rating: 3]

8-2, .800; 1^st in Central Division / 1^st seed / 2^nd overall (tied)

KK:  +3; (3 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied x 3)

CQ:  +33; (.503 [4^th] - .470 [8^th]) / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  +62; (565 [3^rd] – 503 [9^th]) / No. 7 overall  

Abacus Revelation: Since the midpoint of last season, Cleveland has won 15 regular season road games – in that same span, they’ve lost a regular season game at home but once.

No. 4 Toronto Raptors (22.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 15

ESPN 3-week Rating: 10]

7-4, .636; 1^st in Atlantic Division / 5^th seed / 7^th overall (tied)

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 3 overall (tied x 3)

CQ:  +30; (.497 [7^th] - .467 [6^th]) / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  +67; (561 [4^th] – 494 [6^th]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Raptors have entered the new season a more determined defensive team, surging from bottom quartile to Top Ten in FG defense, Def Rebounding and Opp. rate of conversion.

No. 5 Miami Heat (33)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 24

ESPN 3-week Rating: 4]

6-3, .667; 1^st in Southeast Division / 3^rd seed / 5^th overall (tied)

KK:  0; (1 Road Win – 1 Home Loss) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  +41; (.493 [8^th] - .452 [2^nd]) / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  +53; (529 [17^th] – 476 [2^nd]) / No. 9 overall  

Abacus Revelation: The Heat have come out defending with a purpose for three weeks (top-tier rating pretty much across the board) – is Wade this durable; is Whiteside this good?

No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder (36.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 9

ESPN 3-week Rating: 8]

6-5, .545; 1^st in Northwest Division / 6^th seed / 12^th overall (tied)

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  +24; (.512 [2^nd] - .488 [18^th]) / No. 6 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +80; (613 [1^st] – 533 [17^th]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Thunder rank in the bottom five in both preventing and creating turnovers.

No. 7 Utah Jazz (38)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 16

ESPN 3-week Rating: 11]

5-5, .500; 2^nd in Northwest Division / 7^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 3 overall (tied x 3)

CQ:  +9; (.482 [16^th] - .473 [11^th]) / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +68; (551 [8^th] – 483 [3^rd]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Jazz stand Top Ten on both sides of Turnover Efficiency, a complete reversal of last year’s Bottom Ten finishes.

No. 8 Detroit Pistons (38.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 19

ESPN 3-week Rating: 15]

5-5, .500; 4^th in Central Division / 8^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  +2; (3 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 6 overall (tied)

CQ:  +11; (.482 [13^th] - .471 [9^th]) / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  +69; (559 [6^th] – 490 [5^th]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The rugged Pistons are one of four teams to hold a Top Ten ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Rebounding Percentage.

No. 9 Boston Celtics (43.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 18

ESPN 3-week Rating: 9]

6-4, .600; 2^nd in Atlantic Division / 6^th seed / 9^th overall (tied x 3)

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  +17; (.473 [24^th] - .456 [3^rd]) / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +61; (547 [10^th] – 486 [4^th]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: Through three weeks, the Boston defense is forcing a turnover in one of five (.193) opponent possessions, best in the league.

No. 10 Atlanta Hawks (44.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 5

ESPN 3-week Rating: 5]

8-4, .667; 1^st in Southeast Division / 3^rd seed / 5^th overall (tied)

KK:  +1; (4 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied x 4)

CQ:  +21; (.487 [11^th] - .466 [5^th]) / No. 8 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -31; (513 [21^th] – 544 [21^th]) / No. 21 overall

Abacus Revelation: Atlanta won 60 games last season despite rebounding atrociously – the pattern continues; will the victories?

No. 10 Dallas Mavericks (44.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 8

ESPN 3-week Rating: 13]

7-4, .636; 2^nd in Southwest Division / 3^rd seed / 7^th overall (tied)

KK:  +2; (4 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)

CQ:  +6; (.479 [17^th] - .473 [10^th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -4; (491 [25^th] – 495 [8^th]) / No. 17 overall

Abacus Revelation: Rather than block a gazillion shots (and maybe miss as many free throws), the Mavs are defending the 3-point shot (No. 3) and blocking out (No. 7).

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider four elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Offensive Rebounding and the matter of turnovers. These teams hold a Top Ten rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Golden State, Miami, San Antonio

3FG%: Golden State, Indiana, Phoenix, Portland

OR%: Cleveland, Detroit, Phoenix, Toronto

TO%: Golden State, Memphis, Utah

No. 12 Los Angeles Clippers (52)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 2

ESPN 3-week Rating: 6]

6-4, .600; 2^nd in Pacific Division /4^th seed / 9^th overall (tied x 3)

KK:  0; (1 Road Win – 1 Home Loss) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  +24; (.521 [1^st] - .497 [23^rd]) / No. 6 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -25; (537 [14^th] – 562 [25^th]) / No.  20 overall

Abacus Revelation: Has a Doc Rivers team ever – even once – ranked highly in Offensive Rebounding Percentage?

No. 13 Chicago Bulls (53)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 11

ESPN 3-week Rating: 7]

7-3, .700; 2^nd in Central Division / 2^nd seed / 4^th overall

KK:  +1; (2 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 8 overall (tied x 4)

CQ:  +0; (.469 [26^th] - .468 [1^st]) / No. 15 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -46; (489 [26^th] – 535 [18^th]) / No. 24 overall

Abacus Revelation: The league’s best FG defense (.408) is third-worst at forcing turnovers (.123). Weird, though last season’s numbers under Thibs produced a similar dichotomy.

No. 14 Charlotte Hornets (56)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 20

ESPN 3-week Rating: 19]

5-5, .500; 3^rd in Southeast Division / 18^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  +1; (2 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 8 overall (tied x 4)

CQ:  -+6 (.486 [12^th] - .480 [14^th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  -1; (511 [23^rd] – 512 [12^th]) / No. 16 overall 

Abacus Revelation: The Hornets rank first and third, respectively, in taking care of the ball and limiting second shots – areas in which they led the league last season.

No. 15 Phoenix Suns (57.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 21

ESPN 3-week Rating: 18]

6-4, .400; 2^nd in Pacific Division / 4^th seed / 9^th overall (tied x 3)

KK:  -1; (1 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied x 5)

CQ:  +1; (.482 [15^th] - .481 [16^th]) / No. 15 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +40; (534 [16^th] – 494 [6^th]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Suns are the second best Defensive Rebounding team, and rank Top Ten in both making and defending the trey.

No. 16 Indiana Pacers (64)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 17

ESPN 3-week Rating: 12]

6-5, .545; 3^rd in Central Division / 7^th seed / 12^th overall (tied)

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Loss) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  -2; (.476 [21^th] - .478 [13^th]) / No. 17 overall

SPOR-t:  -12; (518 [20^th] – 530 [15^th]) / No. 19 overall

Abacus Revelation: Reverting to their ABA tradition (RIP, Mel Daniels), the Pacers rank Top Ten in both making and defending the trey – oddly something they’ve achieved but once this century.

No. 17 Minnesota Timberwolves (65.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 30

ESPN 3-week Rating: 26]

4-6, .400; 4^th in Northwest Division / 10^th seed / 23^rd overall

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied x 5)

CQ:  +21; (.502 [5^th] - .481 [15^th]) / No. 8 overall (tied)

SPOR-t:  +27; (538 [13^th] – 511 [11^th]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The T’wolves have won four road games in three weeks – after winning seven all last season.

No. 18 Denver Nuggets (68.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 25

ESPN 3-week Rating: 21]

5-5, .500; 3^rd in Northwest Division / 7^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  -9; (.475 [22^nd] - .484 [17^th]) / No. 18 overall

SPOR-t:  -6; (523 [18^th] – 529 [14^th]) / No. 18 overall

Abacus Revelation: During Week 3, Denver opponents made 30 of 75 three-point attempts. The Nuggets made seven fewer on four more attempts despite winning two games. (Huh?)

No. 19 Orlando Magic (73)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 26

ESPN 3-week Rating: 20]

5-6, .455; 5^th in Southeast Division / 12^th seed / 21^st overall (tied)

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  -12; (.464 [27^th] - .476 [12^th]) / No. 20 overall (tied x 3)

SPOR-t:  +1; (522 [19^th] – 521 [13^th]) / No. 15

Abacus Revelation: Second worst at defending the three last season, the Magic currently rank sixth best.

No. 20 Memphis Grizzlies (75.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 3

ESPN 3-week Rating: 17]

6-6, .500; 3^rd in Southwest Division / 7^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  +1; (3 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied x 4)

CQ:  -25; (.479 [18^th] - .504 [26^th]) / No. 26 overall

SPOR-t:  -34; (513 [21^st] – 547 [23^rd]) / No. 23 overall

Abacus Revelation: A No. 28 ranking in both FG shooting and FG defense pretty much says it all.

No. 20 New York Knicks (75.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 29

ESPN 3-week Rating: 23]

5-6, .455; 3^rd in Atlantic Division / 12^th seed / 21^th overall (tied)

KK:  -1; (3 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied x 5)

CQ:  -12; (.478 [19^th] - .490 [20^th]) / No. 20 overall (tied x 3)

SPOR-t:  +28; (558 [7^th] – 530 [15^th]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Knicks have notched three road victories in as many weeks – last season, the rate was about once a month.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Ten offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Offensive Rebounding and the matter of turnovers.

FG%: Detroit, Houston, Memphis

3FG%: Brooklyn, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Memphis

OR%: Atlanta, Chicago, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Philadelphia

TO%: Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Portland

No. 22 Washington Wizards (78.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 6

ESPN 3-week Rating: 14]

4-4, .500; 3^rd in Southeast Division / 8^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  0; (2 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied x 8)

CQ:  -12; (.477 [20^th] - .489 [19^th]) / No. 20 overall (tied x 3)

SPOR-t:  -57; (488 [27^th] – 545 [22^nd]) / No. 25 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wizards endured a horrible (5-14) third quarter to the 2014-15 season – are they trying to get it out of the way sooner this year?

No.23 Sacramento Kings (86)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 23

ESPN 3-week Rating: 24]

4-7, .364; 4^th in Pacific Division / 11^th seed / 24^th overall (tied)

KK:  -5; (0 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall

CQ:  -10; (.488 [10^th] - .498 [24^th]) / No. 19 overall

SPOR-t:  +9; (548 [14^th] – 539 [25^th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: At the three-week juncture, the Kings are the second-best three-point shooting team in the NBA.

No. 24 Milwaukee Bucks (89)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 12

ESPN 3-week Rating: 16]

5-5, .500; 4^th in Central Division / 8^th seed / 14^th overall (tied x 7)

KK:  -1; (2 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied x 5)

CQ:  -19; (.482 [14^th] - .501 [25^th]) / No. 24 overall

SPOR-t:  -64; (536 [15^th] – 600 [30^th]) / No. 26 overall  

Abacus Revelation: The Bucks need some “box-out” in their game – they’re dead last in Defensive Rebounding Percentage.

No. 25 Brooklyn Nets (90.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 22

ESPN 3-week Rating: 28]

1-9, .100; 4^th in Atlantic Division / 14^th seed / 28^th overall (tied)

KK:  -2; (1 Road Win – 3 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied)

CQ:  -17; (.474 [23^rd] - .491 [21^st]) / No. 23 overall

SPOR-t:  +9; (547 [10^th] – 538 [19^th]) / No. 13 overall (tied)

Abacus Revelation: The opposition has made more than twice as many three pointers as have the Nets, roughly 9-4 per game.

No. 26 Portland Trail Blazers (95)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 13

ESPN 3-week Rating: 25]

4-8, .333; 5^th in Northwest Division / 13^th seed / 26^th overall

KK:  -1; (2 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 20 overall (tied x 5)

CQ:  -24; (.489 [9^th] - .513 [30^th]) / No. 25 overall

SPOR-t:  -33; (539 [12^th] – 572 [27^th]) / No. 22 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Blazers are one of only four teams ranked Top Ten in both making and defending three-pointers.

No. 27 Houston Rockets (107)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 9

ESPN 3-week Rating: 22]

4-7, .364; 4^th in Southwest Division / 11^th seed / 24^th overall (tied)

KK:  -3; (2 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall (tied)

CQ:  -37; (.473 [25^th] - .510 [29^th]) / No. 27 overall

SPOR-t:  -88; (507 [24^th] – 595 [29^th]) / No. 28 overall

Abacus Revelation: Is it possible to play Morey-ball and stand No. 29 in 3-point shooting. (Oddly, that’s not a question.)

No. 28 Los Angeles Lakers (110.5)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 27

ESPN 3-week Rating: 27]

2-9, .182; 5^th in Pacific Division / 14^th seed / 27^th overall

KK:  -2; (1 Road Win – 3 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall (tied)

CQ:  -45; (.463 [28^th] - .508 [27^th]) / No. 28 overall

SPOR-t:  -125; (468 [29^th] – 593 [28^th]) / No. 30 overall

Abacus Revelation: Last season’s Lakers were sixth best in Defensive Rebounding; this season’s are fourth worst.

No. 29 New Orleans Pelicans (112)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 14

ESPN 3-week Rating: 29]

1-9, .100; 5^th in Southwest Division / 15^th seed / 28^th overall (tied)

KK:  -3; (0 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall (tied)

CQ:  -49; (.460 [29^th] - .509 [28^th]) / No. 29 overall

SPOR-t:  -87; (474 [28^th] – 561 [24^th]) / No. 27 overall  

Abacus Revelation: The team that finished fourth in Offensive Rebounding Percentage has plummeted to dead last.

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (119)

[2014-15 Abacus rating: 28

ESPN 3-week Rating: 30]

0-11, .000; 5^th in Atlantic Division / 15^th seed / 30^th overall

KK:  -6; (0 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 30 overall

CQ:  -51; (.442 [30^th] - .493 [22^nd]) / No. 30 overall

SPOR-t:  -66; (456 [30^th] – 565 [26^th]) / No. 29 overall

Abacus Revelation: The only “promissory” note in a dismal Sixer start is FG defense, a rather pedestrian No. 16 league ranking.

Power Ratings --The Measurement Instrument

Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference.

The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of veteran NBA coach George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).

Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into a successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the opponent.

Lastly, please allow Abacus to introduce the “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o. boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on .143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.

We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.