Friday, September 22, 2017

WNBA 2017: Final Power Rankings


While the fruits of Title IX’s Gender Equity march on through a fifth decade and the league a third, three WNBA squads perhaps took equity a bit too literally on the competitive level this season. Two, the Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm, scored and allowed exactly the same number of points (2,784 and 2,808 respectively) while another, the Dallas Wings, decided to finish first in scoring and last in points allowed (2,929 and 3,019 respectively). Not all good deeds go unpunished, as all three qualified for the playoffs, albeit at the entry level.

While its rosters are more chock-full of size, skill and athleticism than ever before (maybe even more than any other current pro sports league), the WNBA becomes more and more a coaches’ league with every passing season. The circuit’s two stalwarts are piloted by Cheryl Reeve and Brian Agler, both of whom cut their teeth on the battle-tested Detroit Shock staff of Bill Laimbeer, whose New York Liberty broke free of mediocrity to close their season on a ten-game run.

But it’s tough not to pull for a basketball “lifer” like the Mystics’ Mike Thibault, whose first head coaching gig back in the ‘80’s was in the World Basketball League, a summer loop for under-sized (no taller than 6’4”) dudes. Likewise, hats off to WNBA lifer Vickie Johnson, who had her young Stars taking strides towards respectability in the season’s closing weeks.

And how ‘bout those Connecticut Sun, expected to be bottom-feeders without the on-court stylings of one, Chiney Ogwumike? But the voodoo of Coach of the Year Curt Miller created Jonquel Jones in her stead and a playoff squad in the process.

On the other hand, the dysfunctional Atlanta Dream, perhaps the WNBA version of the cursed Clippers, wasted no time in cutting ties with a big name like Michael Cooper.

The Season by the Numbers (per-game per team)

Possessions: 78.1
Points: 81.5  [PPP: 1.043]
FG: 30.0 – 67.9, .441
3FG: 5.91 – 17.48, .338
3PAr/Usage rate: .257
FT: 15.7 – 19.6, .801
(Off – Tot) Reb: 8.83 – 33.9  [OR% .261]
TO: 13.0  [TO% .145]

Home teams were 121-83 (.593); the team who committed fewer TO’s was 125-65 (.658).


An explanation of the ranking criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 27-7 (10)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +10; (12 Road Wins – 2 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow:  +5.62; (44.8 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 39.2 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  -0.16; (+1.09) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.25) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +128; (628 [No. 1] – 500 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx increased their per game 3FG attempts by two while making 41% over their final seven games.


No. 2 Los Angeles Sparks, 26-8 (14)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +9; (10 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall
Flow:  +4.03; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 39.6 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.13; (+1.07) conversions [No. 5] – (+1.21) opp conversions [No. 7]) / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +51; (563 [No. 6] – 512 [No. 3]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks forced 92 TO’s in 385 opponent possessions during Weeks 15 & 16 – not quite one out of every four possessions.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Los Angele, Minnessota
3FG%: Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York
TO%: Dallas
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota, New York


No. 3 New York Liberty, 22-12 (18)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK: +5; (9 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall
Flow:  +1.85; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 41.4 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  -0.32; (+0.68) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.00) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  +102; (594 [No. 2] – 492 [No. 1]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty successfully defended their home court for the season’s final seven weeks.


No. 4 Washington Mystics, 18-16 (18.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +1; (7 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
Flow:  +0.41; (41.4 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 40.9 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  +0.50; (+1.74) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.24) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +8; (580 [No. 4] – 572 [No. 7]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: A Mystics’ game this season averaged fewer than three TO’s per team per quarter.


No. 5 Connecticut Sun, 21-13 (21)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +4; (9 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow:  +2.21; (44.1 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 41.9 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  -0.51; (+0.71) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.22) conversions [No. 8] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +78; (593 [No. 3] – 515 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: In their final six games, the Sun measured +5.50 in FTA’s, best in the loop.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 33 games [204 overall]

100+ points: 5 games [23 overall]
90-99 points: 7 games [69 overall]
80-89 points: 23 games [146 overall]
70-79 points: 17 games [112 overall]
60-69 points: 11 games [46 overall]
<60 points: 3 games [12 overall]


No. 6 Phoenix Mercury, 18-16 (22.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  +1; (9 Road Win – 8 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
Flow:  +0.47; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 42.1 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  +0.46; (+0.81) conversions [No. 8] – (+0.35) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  -42; (517 [No. 11] – 559 [No. 6]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Merc’s rate of conversion slipped from 49% to 45% during Weeks 15 & 16.


No. 7 Dallas Wings, 16-18 (29)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -1; (6 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
Flow:  -3.56; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.2 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  +0.44; (+0.99) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.54) conversions [No. 2] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  -31; (569 [No. 5] – 600 [No. 10]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings’ opposition posted the lowest usage rate for three-point shots (.231) for the season.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 33 games [204 overall]

1-5 points: 10 games [49 overall]
6-10 points: 5 games [64 overall]
11-15 points: 8 games [41 overall]
16-20 points:  3 games [22 overall]
>20:  7 games [28 overall]



No. 8 Seattle Storm, 15-19 (30)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -2; (5 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall
Flow:  -0.03; (40.9 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 40.9 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  +0.31; (+1.84) conversions [No. 1] - (+1.53) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -74; (521 [No. 11] – 595 [No. 11]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm limited opponents to seven Offensive Rebounds per game during their final five games – down from the normal surrender of 10+.


No. 9 Chicago Sky, 12-22 (31.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -5; (8 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow:  -3.09; (42.2 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 45.3 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +0.97; (+1.68) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.71) opp conversions [No. 4] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -83; (522 [No. 9] – 605 [No. 11]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The enigmatic Sky won twice as many road games (8) as home games this season.


No. 10 Atlanta Dream, 12-22 (35.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -5; (3 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.68; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 44.0 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  -0.93; [-0.29) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.63) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +1; (545 [No. 7] – 544 [No. 5]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream finished the season dead last in both three-point accuracy (.293) and three-point usage (.217).


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Indiana, Washington
PPG: Atlanta, Indiana
OR%: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle


No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 8-26 (39)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -9; (2 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -2.68; (40.1 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 42.8 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  -0.34; (+0.37) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.71) opp conversions [No. 4] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -35; (541 [No. 8] – 576 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: After starting 1-16, the young Stars played a respectable 7-10 post ASG.


No. 12 Indiana Fever, 9-25 (43)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
14-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -8; (3 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow:  -4.56; (38.4 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 43.0 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  -0.28; (+0.94) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.22) conversions [No. 8] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  -118; (496 [No. 12] – 614 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: On the season, the Fever were out-rebounded by seven per game, the weakest showing in the league.


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Missed Shot (FGA) Differential

In its 204 games, WNBA players attempted 27,716 field goals, misfiring 15,497 times. Here’s each team’s total missed FGA’s for the season in comparison with its opponent’s total.

Seattle 171 fewer misses  [1143 (No. 1) – 1314 (No. 5)]
Chicago 140 fewer misses  [1282 (No. 7) – 1422 (No. 1)]]
Minnesota 108 fewer misses  [1200 (No. 3) – 1308 (No. 6)]
Los Angeles 81 fewer misses  [1168 (No. 2) – 1249 (No. 9)]
Phoenix 63 fewer misses  [1236 (No. 4) – 1299 (No. 8)]
New York 1 more miss  [1351 (No. 8) – 1350 (No. 2)]
Washington 15 more misses  [1357 (No. 10) – 1342 (No. 3)]
Connecticut 35 more misses  [1354 (No. 9) – 1319 (No. 4)]
San Antonio 35 more misses  [1275 (No. 5) – 1240 (No. 10)]
Atlanta 117 more misses  [1418 (No. 11) – 1301 (No. 7)]
Indiana 126 more misses  [1278 (No. 6) – 1152 (No. 12)]
Dallas 234 more misses  [1435 (No. 12) – 1201 (No. 11)]


Saturday, August 26, 2017

WNBA 2017: 14-week Progress Report

The 25 WNBA games staged during Weeks 13 & 14 bore witness to 14 40+% three-point shooting performances. [Fortnight Four’s 23 tip-offs produced 20 such displays.]

Two teams shot north of Forty for the full 14 days, two allowed such marksmanship – the Sky did both.

Simultaneously, the ladies had their roughest stretch of the season at the foul line, a paltry .789. Of course, even at that level, the “W’s” free-throw accuracy easily surpasses the production of their NBA brethren. In an average game this summer, a team shoots 16.08 for 19.96 (.805) from the charity stripe.

Fast Fact: In WNBA ’17, the team that attempts more free throws is 108 – 57 (.655).


The following rankings reflect play through Friday, August 18. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 22-5 (11.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +8; (10 Road Wins – 2 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)
Flow:  +5.70; (45.1 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 39.4 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  -0.37; (+0.85) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.22) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +130; (634 [No. 1] – 504 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx’s 14.6 points-per-100-possessions edge is six points more than the next best squad (LA).


No. 2 Los Angeles Sparks, 21-8 (13.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +8; (9 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)
Flow:  +3.24; (42.9 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 39.6 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.22; (+1.14) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.36) opp conversions [No. 11]) / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +29; (568 [No. 5] – 539 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks have held opponents below 70 points in seven games, tied for No. 1.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
3FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York, Washington
TO%: Los Angeles
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota, New York


No. 3 Connecticut Sun, 18-10 (17)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +4; (8 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall
Flow:  +2.11; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 41.5 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  -0.39; (+0.84) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.23) conversions [No. 9] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  +84; (604 [No. 2] – 520 [No. 3]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun own the lowest TO rate (.125) in the loop.


No. 4 Washington Mystics, 16-12 (18)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +2; (6 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow:  +1.04; (41.8 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 40.8 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  +0.59; (+1.75) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.16) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +25; (584 [No. 3] – 559 [No. 7]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics’ FG defense (.506) went missing-in-action during Weeks 13 & 14.


No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, 15-13 (20)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  +1; (8 Road Win – 7 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall
Flow:  +1.29; (43.1 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 41.8 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  +0.82; (+1.04) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.21) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  -23; (533 [No. 10] – 556 [No. 6]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury ranked second shooting (.487) during Weeks 13 & 14.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 25 games [171 overall]

100+ points: 6 games [18 overall]
90-99 points: 6 games [62 overall]
80-89 points: 19 games [123 overall]
70-79 points: 12 games [95 overall]
60-69 points: 6 games [35 overall]
<60 points: 1 games [9 overall]



No. 6 New York Liberty, 16-12 (24)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK: +3; (7 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow:  +0.68; (42.9 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  -0.55; (+0.63) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.18) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +74; (578 [No. 4] – 504 [No. 1]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty shot better on three balls (.455) than overall (.437) in a recent home victory over the defending champs.


No. 7 Chicago Sky, 11-17 (29.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -3; (7 Road Wins – 10 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -2.14; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 44.9 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +1.14; (+1.63) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.48) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -55; (539 [No. 9] – 594 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky posted a whopping 97 points a game during Weeks 13 & 14.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 25 games [171 overall]

1-5 points: 7 games [39 overall]
6-10 points: 9 games [59 overall]
11-15 points: 3 games [33 overall]
16-20 points:  3 games [19 overall]
>20:  3 games [21 overall]



No. 8 Dallas Wings, 13-16 (31)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -2; (4 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
Flow:  -4.00; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.6 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  +0.38; (+1.03) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.66) conversions [No. 4] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  -34; (563 [No. 6] – 597 [No. 10]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings take 4.31 more FT’s per game than the opposition, tops in the league.


No. 9 Seattle Storm, 13-16 (32.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -3; (3 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.52; (40.6 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  +0.33; (+1.83) conversions [No. 1] - (+1.50) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -97; (511 [No. 11] – 608 [No. 11]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm rank dead last (TO%, .167) in taking care of the ball.


No. 10 Atlanta Dream, 10-19 (36)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -5; (3 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow:  -0.45; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 44.0 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  -0.88; [-0.26) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.62) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +4; (554 [No. 8] – 550 [No. 5]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream had more FG attempts than points during their winless Weeks 13 & 14.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Indiana, Washington
PPG: Atlanta, Indiana
OR%: Indiana, Los Angeles, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle


No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 7-23 (38)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -9; (1 Road Win – 10 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -2.00; (40.5 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  -0.45; (+0.38) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.83) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -19; (555 [No. 7] – 574 [No. 8]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Stars have made 58 of 141 treys (.411) during the past four weeks (9 games).


No. 12 Indiana Fever, 9-20 (41)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
12-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -4; (3 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall
Flow:  -4.38; (38.6 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 43.0 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  -0.34; (+0.93) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.28) conversions [No. 10] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  -123; (498 [No. 12] – 621 [No. 10]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever attempted 11 fewer FT’s per game then their opponents during Weeks 13 & 14..


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Conversion Quotient (CQ)

Total WNBA play through 171 games computes to 26,747 offensive possessions, of which 12,967 resulted in “conversion” – a successful FG or trip to the foul line – a conversion rate of .485.

Minnesota CQ, +72 [conv. rate: .515 (No. 1) – opp. conv rate: .443 (No. 1)]
Los Angeles CQ, +44 [conv. rate: .507 (No. 2) – opp. conv rate: .463 (No. 2)]
Connecticut CQ, +35 [conv. rate: .507 (No. 3) – opp. conv rate: .472 (No. 4)]
New York CQ, +16 [conv. rate: .483 (No. 6) – opp. conv rate: .467 (No. 3)]
Washington CQ, +8 [conv. rate: .489 (No. 4) – opp. conv rate: .481 (No. 6)]
Phoenix CQ, +2 [conv. rate: .487 (No. 5) – opp. conv rate: .485 (No. 7)]
Atlanta CQ, -7 [conv. rate: .474 (No. 9) – opp. conv rate: .481 (No. 5)]
Seattle CQ, -15 [conv. rate: .481 (No. 8) – opp. conv rate: .496 (No. 9)]
San Antonio CQ, -28 [conv. rate: .467 (No. 11) – opp. conv rate: .495 (No. 8)]
Chicago CQ, -29 [conv. rate: .469 (No. 10) – opp. conv rate: .498 (No. 10)]
Dallas CQ, -33 [conv. rate: .483 (No. 7) – opp. conv rate: .516 (No. 11)]
Indiana CQ, -58 [conv. rate: .460 (No. 12) – opp. conv rate: .518 (No. 12)]

Saturday, August 12, 2017

WNBA 2017: 12-week Report Card

Somewhere on every team’s list of desirable qualities, often included among the “keys to victory,” is free-throw line efficiency – make all your foul shots, or at least minimize the misses. The Atlanta Dream miss over five FT’s a game, worst in the “W” – at the other extreme, surprisingly, sits the Indiana Fever who misfire on but 2.60 freebies per game.

But the raw numbers can be misleading. For instance, in their first four games out of the All-Star Break, the Chicago Sky missed a mere eight foul shots – two per game, best in the league; alas, their opponents attempted 11 more FT’s than did the Sky, every game – worst in the league, unsurprisingly.

There’s only one WNBA squad that ranks in the Top Four in both fewest per-game missed free throws, and in differential in per-game FT attempts … that is, only one team who minimizes misses while maximizing attempts. Through 24 games, this group averages 3.04 (No. 2) FT misses per game while taking 3.29 (No. 3) more attempts per game.

You’ll hardly be shocked to learn that such an old-school approach to the No. 2 spot in these rankings is being conducted – through injury, international obligation, and all the other regular whatnot of summer play – under the supervision of Mike Thibault.

The following rankings reflect play through Friday, August 4. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.


No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, 20-2 (9)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +8; (9 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow:  +5.32; (44.9 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 39.6 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  +0.05; (+1.09) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.05) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  +118; (630 [No. 1] – 512 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx made three out of every five 2FG attempt during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 2 Washington Mystics, 14-10 (14.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  +4; (6 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.92; (42.7 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 40.8 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  +0.75; (+1.96) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.21) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +31; (585 [No. 3] – 554 [No. 7]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: Despite unreliable FG shooting, the Mystics outscore their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the league.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Minnesota
3FG%: Chicago, Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles, Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New York
TO%: Atlanta, Los Angeles
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Los Angeles, Minnesota


No. 3 Los Angeles Sparks, 18-6 (15)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +5; (6 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall
Flow:  +3.42; (42.3 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 38.8 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  -0.21; (+0.92) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.13) opp conversions [No. 7]) / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +41; (574 [No. 4] – 533 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks shot 120 for 216 (.555) on two-pointers during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 4 Connecticut Sun, 15-9 (17.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +4; (7 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.58; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 41.0 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  -0.23; (+1.08) conversions [No. 5] – (+1.31) conversions [No. 9] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +89; (614 [No. 2] – 525 [No. 3]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sun defense recorded a whopping 50.7 stops per game during Weeks 11 & 12.

No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, 13-11 (21)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  0; (6 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall
Flow:  +0.92; (43.3 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 42.4 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  +0.77; (+1.06) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.29) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  -19; (523 [No. 10] – 542 [No. 5]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: Taurasi & Co. take one more three-pointer a quarter than their opponents – every quarter, every game.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 24 games [146 overall]

100+ points: 1 game [12 overall]
90-99 points: 11 games [56 overall]
80-89 points: 18 games [104 overall]
70-79 points: 13 games [83 overall]
60-69 points: 4 games [29 overall]
<60 points: 1 games [8 overall]



No. 6 New York Liberty, 12-12 (26)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK: +1; (5 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow:  +0.08; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  -0.71; (+0.60) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.31) opp conversions [No. 9] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +63; (573 [No. 5] – 510 [No. 1]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty defense was slow coming back from the ASB, yielding a 47% FG rate (No. 11) and 50% conversion rate (No. 10).


No. 7 Chicago Sky, 9-16 (29.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  -2; (7 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  -2.72; (42.4 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +1.00; (+1.32) conversions [No. 3] – (+0.32) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -51; (537 [No. 9] – 588 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky had less than half as many FT attempts as their opponents (33 compared to 77) during Weeks 11 & 12.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 24 games [146 overall]

1-5 points: 6 games [32 overall]
6-10 points: 6 games [50 overall]
11-15 points: 7 games [30 overall]
16-20 points:  3 games [16 overall]
>20:  2 games [18 overall]



No. 8 Atlanta Dream, 10-14 (31.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  -2; (3 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall (tied)
Flow:  +0.96; (44.7 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 43.7 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  -0.94; [-0.37) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.56) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  -1; (544 [No. 8] – 545 [No. 6]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream seem to have the Three-Game figured out – they rank No. 2 in defending treys (.292) and induce opponents to register the third highest usage rate (.274).


No. 9 Dallas Wings, 12-14 (33)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
Flow:  -4.04; (40.1 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 44.1 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  +0.29; (+1.02) conversions [No. 7] – (+0.73) conversions [No. 4] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -43; (561 [No. 6] – 604 [No. 11]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: Among the league’s poorer shooters from distance, the Wings drained 42% of their treys over Weeks 11 & 12.


No. 10 Seattle Storm, 10-14 (33.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  -4; (2 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.17; (40.4 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 40.5 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  +0.31; (+1.94) conversions [No. 2] - (+1.63) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  -95; (514 [No. 11] – 609 [No. 12]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Storm’s anemic board-work ranks them dead last in both Offensive and Defensive Rebounding.


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Dallas, Indiana
PPG: Indiana
OR%: Indiana, Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago, Indiana, Seattle



No. 11 San Antonio Stars, 5-21 (39)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]

KK:  -9; (1 Road Win – 10 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -2.58; (40.0 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 42.6 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  -0.60; (+0.25) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.85) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  -30; (552 [No. 7] – 582 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: For the first time this season, the Stars attempted more FT’s than the opposition (three per game) during Weeks 11 & 12.


No. 12 Indiana Fever, 8-17 (42.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -4; (3 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall (tied)
Flow:  -3.44; (39.0 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 42.5 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  -0.48; (+0.88) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.36) conversions [No. 11] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  -99; (501 [No. 12] – 600 [No. 10]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever offense has limped to less than a point per possession over the past six weeks (13 games).


Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Per-game Turnover Differential

Through 146 games, WNBA play has produced 3,806 turnovers (or 13.03 per game per team) … just about one in six (.167) of the more than 22,000 offensive possessions.

For the record, seven times this season WNBA teams have played to a standoff in the Turnover column of a game’s stat sheet … in the remaining games, the team that committed fewer TO’s has 89 wins and 50 losses, .640. Hmmm.

Los Angeles -2.87 TO’s committed per game [11.8 (No. 3) – 14.7 (No. 2)]
Atlanta -2.79 TO’s committed per game [12.2 (No. 4) – 15.0 (No. 1)]
Connecticut -1.83 TO’s committed per game [11.7 (No. 2) – 13.5 (No. 7)]
Indiana -1.40 TO’s committed per game [12.4 (No. 5) – 13.8 (No. 5)]
Minnesota -1.00 TO’s committed per game [13.7 (No. 9) – 14.7 (No. 3)]
Dallas -0.77 TO’s committed per game [13.3 (No. 1) – 14.1 (No. 4)]
Washington -0.75 TO’s committed per game [10.8 (No. 1) – 11.5 (No. 10)]
Phoenix -0.29 TO’s committed per game [13.3 (No. 1) – 13.6 (No. 6)]
San Antonio +1.92 TO’s committed per game [14.3 (No. 10) – 12.4 (No. 8)]
New York +2.58 TO’s committed per game [13.1 (No. 6) – 10.5 (No. 12)]
Seattle +2.71 TO’s committed per game [14.4 (No. 11) – 11.7 (No. 9)]
Chicago +4.25 TO’s committed per game [15.3 (No. 12) – 11.1 (No. 11)]