The calendar may have ordained it the FOUR-teenth, but the
second Friday of July sure felt like a Bad Luck Day for the WNBA and its fan
base. Two of the summer loop’s brightest young veterans – the top two picks in the
draft just four years ago – went down and stayed down until assisted from the
floor. Washington Mystic fans had yet to begin breathing normally in front of
their screens from Elena Della Donne’s faulty ankle when promising guard Taylor
Hill was lost for the season to an ACL injury.
The Phoenix Mercury crowd got their double-whammy all at
once early in the fourth quarter, as WNBA leading scorer Brittney Griner
collapsed to a grotesquely twisted ankle, but reached for her knee, which was
determined to have sustained a bone bruise. She’s expected to miss a month.
Mishaps, in the form of both injury as well as sub-par
play, have always been a part of basketball. In-game errors – which were indeed
first called Errors in the early days of the old ABA – are now called Turnovers and
have been an official game stat for about 50 years.
Through 10 weeks and 122 ballgames, WNBA play has generated
19,014 possessions (77.9 per team per game) and 3,168 TO’s (12.98 per team per
game). Thus, one of every six possessions (.167) has ended not with a field
goal attempt and/or trip to the foul line, but rather an offensive error of
some sort.
It seems a no-brainer that limiting one own TO’s and
inducing opponent errors would constitute successful play, huh? So just how
frequently does the teams that wins the Turnover battle actually win the game?
Does TO superiority provide as much advantage as, say, Homecourt?
Well, Home teams have won 71 games and lost 51 (.582).
The team who took better care of the ball won 72 times while
losing only 43 (.626) – seven games resulted in equal TO’s.
Playoff Peek
While Cheryl Reeve’s Minnesota Lynx dynasty rolls on, a
couple of pretty good races seem to be shaping up for the now-coveted No. 2 and
No. 4 seeds for the post-season. Under the format adopted in 2016, the top two
finishers are spared the dangerous one-and-done “guillotine” rounds entirely,
while the “shes” who fall to No. 5 face the prospects of two such showdowns.
The Chicago Sky graded out as the league’s top team for
Weeks 9 & 10, joining Connecticut (Weeks 5 & 6) and Phoenix (Weeks 3
& 4, tie) as the only dark clouds to the Minny-glow.
The following rankings reflect play
through Thursday, July 20. An explanation of the criteria is available here. An
index of the season’s bi-weekly ratings is available here.
No.
1 Minnesota Lynx, 16-2 (8)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]
KK: +7; (8 Road Wins
– 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall
Flow: +4.83; (44.6 stops
OF opp [No. 2] – 39.7 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 1 overall
Striping: +0.33;
(+1.22) conversions [No.3] – (+0.89) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t: +121; (637
[No. 1] – 516 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The best Offensive Rebounding (.316) team in the “W” are the third-best (.474)
shooters.
No. 2
Washington Mystics, 12-9 (14)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]
KK: +2; (4 Road Wins
– 2 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow: +2.05; (43.1 stops
OF opp [No. 4] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 4 overall
Striping: +0.67;
(+2.14) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.48) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t: +26; (579
[No. 3] – 553 [No. 6]) / No. 4 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Mystics top the league in both three-point usage (.323) and TO% (.120).
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 1)
Which teams are
performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of
the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting,
Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t
score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and
defensively:
FG%: NONE
3FG%: Minnesota
PPG: Los Angeles,
Minnesota
OR%: Minnesota, New
York
TO%: Atlanta
SPOR-t: Connecticut,
Minnesota
No.
3 Los Angeles Sparks, 14-6 (18.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]
KK: +4; (5 Road Wins
– 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall (tied)
Flow: +2.70; (41.7
stops OF opp [No. 7] – 39.0 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
Striping: -0.20;
(+1.08) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.28) opp conversions [No. 10]) / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t: +3; (566 [No.
5] – 563 [No. 7]) / No. 6 overall
Abacus Revelation:
LA ranks No. 2 in opponent per-game scoring, yet No. 9 in FG and 3FG defense.
How?
No.
4 Connecticut Sun, 9-7 (19)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]
KK: +4; (7 Road Wins
– 3 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied)
Flow: +0.33; (41.5 stops
OF opp [No. 8] – 41.1 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 7 overall
Striping: 0.00;
(+1.10) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.10) conversions [No. 8] / No. 6 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: +71; (611
[No. 2] – 540 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sun’s five missed FTs per game dubiously tops the league.
No.
5 Phoenix Mercury, 11-9 (23)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]
KK: -1; (5 Road Win –
6 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow: +1.45; (42.9 stops
OF opp [No. 7] – 41.5 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 5 overall
Striping: +0.50;
(+0.95) conversions [No. 6] – (+0.45) opp conversions [No. 3] / No. 3 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: -1; (535 [No.
10] – 536 [No. 3]) / No. 7 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Mercury have been a better team on the road (5-3) than at home (6-6).
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 27 games
[122 overall]
100+ points: 5 games
[11 overall]
90-99 points: 8 games
[45 overall]
80-89 points: 20
games [86 overall]
70-79 points: 13
games [70 overall]
60-69 points: 6 games
[25 overall]
<60 points: 2
games [7 overall]
No.
6 Atlanta Dream, 9-11 (25)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]
KK: 0; (3 Road Wins –
3 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall
Flow: +2.05; (44.7 stops
OF opp [No. 1] – 42.7 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 3 overall
Striping: -1.22;
[-0.47) conversions [No. 12] – (+0.75) conversions [No. 3] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t: +5; (548 [No.
7] – 543 [No. 5]) / No. 5 overall
Abacus Revelation: The worst three-point shooters in the league hit
for 40% over the last two weeks. Go figure!
No.
7 New York Liberty, 10-9 (26.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]
KK: -10; (3 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall
(tied)-4
Flow: +1.00; (43.3 stops
OF opp [No. 3] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 6 overall
Striping: -0.68;
(+0.37) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.05) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t: +73; (568
[No. 4] – 495 [No. 1]) / No. 2 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Liberty have led the “W” in FG defense (.403) for nearly two months.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential
27 games [122 overall]
1-5 points: 5 games
[26 overall]
6-10 points: 7 games
[44 overall]
11-15 points: 7 games
[23 overall]
16-20 points: 4 games [13 overall]
>20: 4 games [16 overall]
No.
8 Chicago Sky, 8-13 (27.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]
KK: -1; (6 Road Wins
– 7 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow: -2.95; (42.0 stops
OF opp [No. 6] – 45.0 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 9 overall
Striping: +0.95; (+1.10)
conversions [No. 4] – (+0.14) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t: -47; (546
[No. 9] – 593 [No. 9]) / No. 10 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sky increased their per game scoring by 15 points during Weeks 9 & 10.
No.
9 Seattle Storm, 9-11 (33.5)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]
KK: -4; (2 Road Wins
– 6 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow: -0.15; (40.7 stops
OF opp [No. 9] – 40.9 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
Striping: +0.50;
(+1.98) conversions [No. 2] - (+1.48) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 3 overall
(tied)
SPOR-t: -82; (517
[No. 11] – 599 [No. 10]) / No. 11 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The dead-eye Storm hit 51% of their FG attempts during Weeks 9 & 10.
No.
10 Dallas Wings, 10-12 (35)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]
KK: -1; (4 Road Wins
– 5 Home Losses) / No. 6 overall (tied)-4
Flow: -3.59; (40.6 stops
OF opp [No. 10] – 44.2 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 12 overall
Striping: 0.00;
(+0.66) conversions [No. 9] – (+0.66) conversions [No. 4] / No. 6 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: -40; (562
[No. 6] – 602 [No. 11]) / No. 9 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Wings play the highest scoring games in the league, 173.4 combined ppg.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 2)
Are not the
exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a
Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG
shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and
SPOR-t.
FG%: Dallas
3FG%: Dallas, Indiana
PPG: Chicago, Indiana
OR%: Los Angeles,
Seattle
TO%: Chicago, Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago,
Indiana, Seattle
No.
11 San Antonio Stars, 3-18 (39)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]
KK: -7; (1 Road Win –
8 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow: -3.10; (40.1 stops
OF opp [No. 11] – 43.2 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 10 overall
Striping: -0.43;
(+0.19) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.62) opp conversions [No. 3] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t: -34; (547
[No. 8] – 581 [No. 8]) / No. 8 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The spunky Stars outplayed the other guys by four possessions a game over the
last two weeks.
No.
12 Indiana Fever, 8-13 (43)
[2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11]
KK: -2; (3 Road Wins
– 5 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall
Flow: -3.38; (38.4 stops
OF opp [No. 12] – 41.8 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 11 overall
Striping: -0.45;
(+0.79) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.24) conversions [No. 9] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t: -93; (512
[No. 12] – 605 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall
Abacus
Revelation: The Fever rank third in the league in forcing TO’s (.160).
Abacus Revelation for
the Road / Random Ranking – Points per Shot (FGA) Differential
Through 122 games, the WNBA has scored 19,956 points while
attempting 16,481 field goals – a rate of 121.1 points per 100 shots.
Seattle +14.8 points
per 100 shots [132.7 (No. 1) – 117.9 (No. 5)]
Minnesota +14.5 points
per 100 shots [128.5 (No. 3) – 114.0 (No. 1)]
Los Angeles +10.6 points
per 100 shots [130.7 (No. 2) – 120.1 (No. 8)]
Phoenix +5.6 points
per 100 shots [125.6 (No. 4) – 120.0 (No. 7)]
Washington +5.4 points
per 100 shots [119.4 (No. 7) – 114.0 (No. 2)]
New York +0.3 points
per 100 shots [116.2 (No. 9) – 115.9 (No. 3)]
Chicago -1.2 points
per 100 shots [115.8 (No. 11) – 117.0 (No. 4)]
Atlanta -3.2 points
per 100 shots [115.9 (No. 10) – 119.1 (No. 6)]
Connecticut -5.1
points per 100 shots [119.5 (No. 6) – 124.6 (No. 9)]
Dallas -9.0 points
per 100 shots [121.4 (No. 5) – 130.4 (No. 11)]
San Antonio -13.4 points
per 100 shots [111.3 (No. 12) – 124.7 (No. 10)]
Indiana -15.3 points
per 100 shots [117.2 (No. 8) – 132.5 (No. 12)]
