Sunday, July 21, 2019

WNBA 2019: 8-Week Progress Report


“What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas!”

Oh, how Washington Mystics head coach Mike Thibault must wish that old adage were true, huh?

His squad rolled into Las Vegas to play Bill Laimbeer’s rugged Aces two weeks ago ridin’ high – atop the WNBA standings, fresh off a 43-point thrashing of the stout Connecticut Sun, and flaunting a five-game winning streak (four of those victories occurring on the road). Within seven minutes, the Capital Crew had surged to a 16-point advantage which still stood at 15 (51 – 36) at the intermission.

That intermission, unfortunately, coincided with a seismic shift, and the resulting tremor put an end to that evening’s frolic in Sin City. Coach Mike’s Ladies have yet to regain their equilibrium, falling into a three-game tailspin and out of the WNBA 2019 “Driver’s Seat.”

And to add injury to insult, the Mystics’ MVP candidate Elena Della Donne suffered a broken nose a mere minute into their subsequent 17-point loss to the mercurial LA Sparks.

Nonetheless, Washington ‘mystically” still sits atop the heap as the season hits its midpoint.

Here’s what an average 2019 WNBA game performance looks like, numerically.

[All data reflects play through Thursday, July 18.  An explanation of the criteria is available here.]

Possessions: 78.5
Points: 76.8  [PPP: 0.978]
FG: 28.8 – 69.1, .416
3FG: 6.5.5 – 19.87, .330
3PAr/Usage rate: .288
FT: 12.8 – 16.0, .800
(Off – Tot) Reb: 9.4 – 35.5  [OR% .264]
TO: 14.4  [TO% .161]



No. 1 Washington Mystics, 9-6 (14)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +2; (5 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall
Flow:  +2.80; (45.1 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 42.3 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 2 overall
Striping:  +1.27; (+3.10) conversions [No. 1] – (+1.83) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +18; (560 [No. 1] – 542 [No. 8]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics launch more than 25 3FG’s per game, nearly 20% higher than any other squad this season.



No. 2 Las Vegas Aces, 11-5 (16)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3
Flow:  +3.94; (50.4 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 46.4 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 1 overall
Striping:  -1.94; (+0.38) conversions [No. 12] – (+2.31) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +67; (518 [No. 7] – 451 [No. 1]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Laimbeer Crew ranks No.1 in FG defense (.384) through 8 weeks.




ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Chicago, Las Vegas
3FG%: Chicago, Connecticut, Las Vegas
PPG: NONE
OR%: Connecticut, Dallas
TO%: Los Angeles, Washington
SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota




No. 3 Seattle Storm, 11-8 (19.5)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +1; (4 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
Flow:  +2.11; (46.5 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 44.4 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall
Striping:  -0.24; (+1.95) conversions [No. 5] - (+2.18) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +32; (519 [No. 6] – 487 [No. 2]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The sharp-shooting Storm were No. 1 in FG% (.464) and 3FG% (.422) during Weeks 7 & 8.




No. 4 Connecticut Sun, 11-6 (20)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +3; (4 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3
Flow:  -0.06; (45.4 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 45.5 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 6 overall
Striping:  -0.53; (+1.06) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.59) conversions [No. 5] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t:  +59; (546 [No. 3] – 487 [No. 2]) / No. 2 overall
Abacus Revelation: Sun opponents rank dead last in both 3FG% (.280) and 3-point usage (.211).




No. 5 Los Angeles Sparks, 10-7 (22)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 8
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  +3; (5 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall (tied)-3
Flow:  -0.71; (46.6 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 47.3 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 9 overall
Striping:  +0.76; (+2.62) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.85) opp conversions [No. 9]) / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  -15; (518 [No. 7] – 533 [No. 7]) / No. 8 overall
Abacus Revelation: The Sparks rank second in inducing empty possessions (46.6 per game).



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace 103 games

100+ points: 4 games
90-99 points: 22 games
80-89 points: 54 games
70-79 points: 71 games
60-69 points: 44 games
<60 points: 11 games  




No. 6 Chicago Sky, 10-8 (24.5)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  0; (3 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
Flow:  -0.56; (46.2 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 46.7 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 7 overall
Striping:  +1.33; (+2.47) conversions [No. 3] – (+1.14) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  -33; (493 [No. 10] – 526 [No. 6]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky’s 83 ppg topped the “W” for Weeks 7 & 8.




No. 7 Minnesota Lynx, 10-8 (25.5)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 6
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  0; (4 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.83; (46.6 stops OF opp [No. 3] – 44.7 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 4 overall
Striping:  -0.64; (+1.25) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.89) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  +55; (543 [No. 4] – 488 [No. 4]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx rank No. 2 in forcing TO’s (.184), but dead last in committing them (.180).



No. 8 Phoenix Mercury, 8-8 (26.5)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  +1; (3 Road Win – 2 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
Flow:  +1.06; (44.4 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 43.4 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 5 overall
Striping:  +0.28; (+2.06) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.78) opp conversions [No. 7] / No. 5 overall
SPOR-t:  -82; (463 [No. 12] – 545 [No. 9]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury rank second in taking care of the ball (TO%, .145).





ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential 103 games

1-5 points: 34 games
6-10 points: 27 games
11-15 points: 18 games
16-20 points:  12 games
>20: 12 games



No.9 Dallas Wings, 5-13 (30)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -4; (0 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall
Flow:  -2.61; (42.6 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 10 overall
Striping:  +0.36; (+1.69) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.33) conversions [No. 3] / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  +19; (531 [No. 3] – 512 [No. 5]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings are the WNBA’s only winless team on the road (0 – 9).



No. 10 Indiana Fever, 6-12 (33)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  -3; (4 Road Wins – 7 Home Losses) / No. 10 overall
Flow:  -0.61; (43.2 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 43.8 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
Striping:  -0.28; (+1.33) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.61) conversions [No. 6) / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  -4; (555 [No. 2] – 559 [No. 11]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever attempted six more FT’s per game than their opposition during Weeks 7 & 8.



ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: New York
3FG%: Dallas, New York
PPG: NONE
OR%: Phoenix
TO%: Chicago
SPOR-t: Atlanta, New York, Phoenix



No. 11 New York Liberty, 7-10 (36)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -1; (4 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall
Flow:  -3.12; (44.5 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 47.6 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
Striping:  0.00; (1.41) conversions [No. 7] – (+1.41) opp conversions [No. 4] / No. 6 overall
SPOR-t:  -44; (503 [No. 9] – 547 [No. 10]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Liberty were the second-best defensive rebounding team (.758) during Weeks 7 & 8.



No. 12 Atlanta Dream, 5-12 (45)
[6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12
2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -5; (1 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall
Flow:  -3.59; (44.1 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 47.7 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 12 overall
Striping:  -0.35; [+0.88) conversions [No. 11] – (+1.24) conversions [No. 2] / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t:  -83; (487 [No. 11] – 570 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Dream held opponents to 68.7 ppg during Weeks 7 & 8, best in the league.




Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Points per Shot (FGA) Differential

In its first 103 games, WNBA 2019 produced 15,830 points while attempting 14,233 field goals – a rate of 111.2 points per 100 shots.

Las Vegas +12.7 points per 100 shots [117.4 (No. 2) – 104.7 (No. 1)]
Washington +9.5 points per 100 shots [120.3 (No. 1) – 110.8 (No. 5)]
Phoenix +7.0 points per 100 shots [112.7 (No. 6) – 105.7 (No. 2)]
Chicago +6.9 points per 100 shots [115.8 (No. 3) – 108.9 (No. 4)]
Minnesota +2.1 points per 100 shots [113.3 (No. 5) – 111.2 (No.6)]
Seattle +2.0 points per 100 shots [113.7 (No. 4) – 111.7 (No. 7)]
Los Angeles -3.0 points per 100 shots [108.0 (No. 10) – 111.8 (No. 8)]
Connecticut -3.1 points per 100 shots [109.7 (No. 9) – 112.8 (No. 9)]
Indiana -3.5 points per 100 shots [111.0 (No. 7) – 113.5 (No. 10)]
Atlanta -6.0 points per 100 shots [101.0 (No. 12) – 107.0 (No. 3)]
New York -8.7 points per 100 shots [110.5 (No. 8) – 119.2 (No. 12)]
Dallas -14.4 points per 100 shots [102.6 (No. 11) – 117.0 (No. 11)]

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