WNBA 2019: 12-Week Progress Report

WNBA 2019’s sixth fortnight became a showcase for basketball old-schooler Mike Thibault’s Washington Mystics, who have been sitting atop these rankings since Week 6. While posting a perfect 5 – 0 record, EDD & Co. were league-best in points both scored and allowed, FG and 3FG shooting, Turnover percentage and Defensive Rebounding – also shot north of 90% from the foul line.

In all likelihood, Coach T is fretting that they’re peaking too soon!

It’s a Make-or-Miss League

Back on June 5, in each team’s third game of the season, the Mystics and Chicago Sky both connected on exactly half their FG attempts – the only occasion in 159 tip-offs when teams posted an identical FG%.

In the other 158 games, the squad who shot better from the field has won a whopping 128 times (.810).

By contrast, the team holding an edge in Total Rebounds is 103 – 47 - 9 (.687) and the team committing fewer turnovers is 89 – 56 – 14 (.614).

Here’s what an average 2019 WNBA game performance looks like, numerically.

[All data reflects play through Monday, August 19.  An explanation of the criteria is available here.]

Possessions: 78.6

Points: 77.8  [PPP: 0.990]

FG: 28.8 – 68.4, .421

3FG: 6.8 – 20.1, .337

3PAr/Usage rate: .294

FT: 13.5 – 16.8, .802

(Off – Tot) Reb: 9.2 – 34.8  [OR% .264]

TO: 14.7  [TO% .162]

No. 1 Washington Mystics, 20-7 (6)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 1

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 3]

KK:  +7; (10 Road Wins – 3 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall

Flow:  +4.48; (44.8 stops OF opp [No. 7] – 40.3 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 1 overall

Striping:  +1.46; (+3.50) conversions [No. 1] – (+2.04) opp conversions [No. 9] / No. 1 overall

SPOR-t:  +59; (589 [No. 1] – 530 [No. 7]) / No. 3 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mystics have made exactly as many FT’s (379) as its opponents have taken.

No. 2 Connecticut Sun, 19-8 (14)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 1]

KK:  +5; (6 Road Wins – 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall

Flow:  +0.67; (45.9 stops OF opp [No. 5] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 4 overall

Striping:  -0.28; (+1.09) conversions [No. 10] – (+1.37) conversions [No. 4] / No. 7 overall

SPOR-t:  +75; (556 [No. 2] – 481 [No. 2]) / No. 1 overall

Abacus Revelation: Sun opponents post a higher 3PAr (.311) than connect rate for treys (.286) – only the Aces duplicate this unusual achievement.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Chicago, Las Vegas

3FG%: Connecticut, Las Vegas

PPG: NONE

OR%: Connecticut, Minnesota, Seattle

TO%: Connecticut

SPOR-t: Connecticut, Minnesota

No. 3 Las Vegas Aces, 18-9 (20)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 2

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 8]

KK:  +3; (7 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 4 overall

Flow:  +3.89; (49.4 stops OF opp [No. 1] – 45.6 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 2 overall

Striping:  -1.72; (+0.61) conversions [No. 12] – (+2.33) opp conversions [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

SPOR-t:  +68; (530 [No. 5] – 462 [No. 1]) / No. 2 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Las Vegas D has induced a total of 1,195 missed FGA’s, 119 more than any other squad this season.

No. 4 Chicago Sky, 15-11 (21.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  +1; (5 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +0.58; (46.8 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 46.2 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 5 overall

Striping:  +1.10; (+2.33) conversions [No. 3] – (+1.23) opp conversions [No. 3] / No. 2 overall

SPOR-t:  -28; (507 [No. 9] – 535 [No. 8]) / No. 9 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sky post the league’s second-highest 3PAr (.322), their opposition the lowest (.260).

No. 5 Los Angeles Sparks, 15-10 (22)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 6]

KK:  +4; (6 Road Wins – 2 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall

Flow:  -0.52; (46.3 stops OF opp [No. 2] – 46.8 stops BY opp [No. 10] / No. 8 overall

Striping:  +0.88; (+2.64) conversions [No. 2] – (+1.76) opp conversions [No. 7]) / No. 3 overall

SPOR-t:  -18; (508 [No. 8] – 526 [No. 6]) / No. 8 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Sparks’ D forced nearly 20 opponent TO’s per game during Weeks 11 & 12.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Pace 159 games

100+ points: 10 games

90-99 points: 37 games

80-89 points: 83 games

70-79 points: 109 games

60-69 points: 63 games

<60 points: 16 games  

No. 6 Minnesota Lynx, 13-14 (24.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 6

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 2]

KK:  0; (6 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Flow:  +1.41; (46.1 stops OF opp [No. 4] – 44.7 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 3 overall

Striping:  -0.61; (+1.22) conversions [No. 8] – (+1.83) opp conversions [No. 8] / No. 10 overall

SPOR-t:  +48; (541 [No. 3] – 493 [No. 3]) / No. 4 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Lynx’s .446 marksmanship from the field ranks No. 2 in the “W”.

No. 6 Seattle Storm, 15-13 (24.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 3

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 4

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 5

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 4]

KK:  +1; (5 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)

Flow:  +0.50; (45.4 stops OF opp [No. 6] – 44.9 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 6 overall

Striping:  -0.34; (+1.89) conversions [No. 5] - (+2.23) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 8 overall

SPOR-t:  +14; (516 [No. 6] – 502 [No. 4]) / No. 5 overall

Abacus Revelation: Both the Storm and their opponents have connected on 193 3FG’s.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Scoring Differential 159 games

1-5 points: 46 games

6-10 points: 48 games

11-15 points: 26 games

16-20 points:  17 games

>20: 22 games

No. 8 Phoenix Mercury, 13-13 (30.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 8

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 9]

KK:  0; (4 Road Wins – 4 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall (tied)

Flow:  +0.42; (43.8 stops OF opp [No. 8] – 43.3 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 7 overall

Striping:  +0.42; (+2.17) conversions [No. 4] – (+1.75) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 5 overall

SPOR-t:  -74; (474 [No. 11] – 548 [No. 9]) / No. 11 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Mercury struggled from the field during Weeks 11 & 12, shooting a league-worst .375.

No. 9 Dallas Wings, 9-18 (31)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 7]

KK:  -5; (1 Road Win – 6 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall

Flow:  -2.22; (43.0 stops OF opp [No. 11] – 45.2 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 10 overall

Striping:  +0.59; (+1.67) conversions [No. 6] – (+1.07) conversions [No. 1] / No. 4 overall

SPOR-t:  +7; (516 [No. 6] – 509 [No. 5]) / No. 6 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Wings have risen to No. 2 in scoring defense (75.1) through 12 weeks.

ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.

FG%: New York

3FG%: New York, Seattle

PPG: Atlanta

OR%: Los Angeles, Phoenix

TO%: New York

SPOR-t: Atlanta, New York

No. 10 Indiana Fever, 9-17 (36.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 10

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 9

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 7

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 5]

KK:  -4; (4 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)

Flow:  -1.65; (43.0 stops OF opp [No. 12] – 44.7 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 9 overall

Striping:  -0.79; (+1.35) conversions [No. 7] – (+2.13) conversions [No. 10) / No. 11 overall

SPOR-t:  -17; (541 [No. 3] – 558 [No. 11]) / No. 7 overall

Abacus Revelation: The Fever take fewer than one in four shots (.244) from behind the Arc, No. 11 in 3PAr.

No. 10 New York Liberty, 8-18 (36.5)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 11

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 10]

KK:  -4; (4 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)

Flow:  -3.54; (43.5 stops OF opp [No. 10] – 47.0 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall

Striping:  -0.12; (1.17) conversions [No. 9] – (+1.29) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 6 overall

SPOR-t:  -51; (502 [No. 10] – 553 [No. 10]) / No. 10 overall

Abacus Revelation: The New York defense is yielding 84 points per game, worst in the circuit.

No. 12 Atlanta Dream, 5-21 (45)

[10-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

8-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

6-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

4-week Abacus Rank: No. 12

2-week Abacus Rank: No. 12]

KK:  -8; (1 Road Win – 9 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall

Flow:  -4.38; (43.6 stops OF opp [No. 9] – 48.0 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 12 overall

Striping:  -0.52; [+1.04) conversions [No. 11] – (+1.56) conversions [No. 5] / No. 9 overall

SPOR-t:  -97; (470 [No. 12] – 567 [No. 12]) / No. 12 overall

Abacus Revelation: Both the Dream and their adversaries have attempted 459 Free Throws (17.7 per game).

Abacus Revelation for the Road / Random Ranking – Per-game Turnover Differential

Through 159 games, WNBA play has produced 4,672 turnovers (or 14.7 per game per team) … slightly under one out of six (.162) of the season’s roughly 25,000 total offensive possessions.

For the record, on 14 occasions this season WNBA teams have played to a standoff in the Turnover column of a game’s stat sheet … in the remaining games, the team that committed fewer TO’s has 89 wins and 56 losses, .614.

Washington -3.56 TO’s committed per game [11.4 (No. 1) – 15.0 (No. 5)]

Los Angeles -1.72 TO’s committed per game [14.8 (No. 6) – 16.5 (No. 3)]

Connecticut -1.59 TO’s committed per game [14.4 (No. 4) – 16.0 (No. 4)]

Phoenix -0.77 TO’s committed per game [12.9 (No. 2) – 13.7 (No. 8)]

Seattle -0.75 TO’s committed per game [15.9 (No. 10) – 16.6 (No. 2)]

Minnesota +0.11 TO’s committed per game [16.8 (No. 12) – 16.7 (No. 1)]

Indiana +0.85 TO’s committed per game [13.7 (No. 3) – 12.9 (No. 12)]

Atlanta +0.96 TO’s committed per game [14.4 (No. 5) – 13.5 (No. 11)]

Dallas +1.00 TO’s committed per game [15.2 (No. 8) – 14.2 (No. 6)]

Las Vegas +1.22 TO’s committed per game [15.1 (No. 7) – 13.9 (No. 7)]

Chicago +2.08 TO’s committed per game [15.6 (No. 9) – 13.5 (No. 10)]

New York +2.27 TO’s committed per game [15.9 (No. 11) – 13.7 (No. 8)]