Sunday, March 13, 2016

NBA 2015-16 18-week Power Ratings

The onset of March pushes the NBA regular season into its final six weeks of match-ups and maneuverings.


And speaking of maneuverings, “tanking” in the NBA might not be as attractive a strategy as some people seem to think – nor so easy to implement.

In just the last four playoff seasons – since the most recent work stoppage – the league’s rate of playoff participation has been 87 percent. Only four squads have failed to qualify at least once. Over half (60 percent) of the Association has won at least one playoff series during that stretch – including Philadelphia.

Accompanying this set of ratings is a summary of the extent of each franchise’s playoff experience during this recent stretch.

Here’s an overall Abacus Revelation on the matter: Five teams have not tasted defeat in a first-round playoff series in the last four years – Cleveland, Indiana, Miami, Oklahoma City and Washington; and each of those teams has missed the playoffs at least once.

[All Data reflects play through Thursday, March 2. The criteria is explained below.]

3-week, 6-week, 9-week, 12-week and 15-week ratings are also available.


No. 1 San Antonio Spurs (6)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 2
Abacus 15-week Rating: 1
Abacus 12-week Rating: 1
Abacus 9-week Rating: 1
Abacus 6-week Rating: 1
3-week Abacus rating: 1]

51-9, .850; 1st in Southwest Division / 2nd seed / 2nd overall
KK:  +22; (22 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall
CQ:  +57; (.520 [2nd] - .463 [1st]) / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t:  +97; (582 [2nd] – 485 [1st]) / No. 1 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (4), Total Games (65), Series Won (9)

No. 2 Golden State Warriors (8)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 1
Abacus 15-week Rating: 2
Abacus 12-week Rating: 2
Abacus 9-week Rating: 2
Abacus 6-week Rating: 2
3-week Abacus rating: 2]

54-5, .915; 1st in Pacific Division / 1st seed / 1st overall
KK:  +29; (29 Road Wins – 0 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall
CQ:  +34; (.517 [3rd] – .483 [6th]) / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t:  +45; (579 [3rd] – 534 [14th]) / No. 4 overall  
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (40), Series Won (5)

No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder (14.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 4
Abacus 15-week Rating: 3
Abacus 12-week Rating: 3
Abacus 9-week Rating: 3
Abacus 6-week Rating: 4
3-week Abacus rating: 6]

42-19, .689; 1st in Northwest Division / 3rd seed / 4th overall
KK:  +9; (17 Road Wins – 8 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
CQ:  +30; (.524 [1st] - .494 [15th]) / No. 3 overall
SPOR-t:  +75; (628 [1st] – 553 [21st]) / No. 2 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (50), Series Won (6)

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (16.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 5
Abacus 15-week Rating: 4
Abacus 12-week Rating: 4
Abacus 9-week Rating: 4
Abacus 6-week Rating: 5
3-week Abacus rating: 3]

42-17, .712; 1st in Central Division / 1st seed / 3rd overall
KK:  +12; (17 Road Wins – 5 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
CQ:  +14; (.502 [7th] - .488 [11th]) / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t:  +48; (569 [5th] – 521 [4th]) / No. 3 overall  
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (20), Series Won (3)

No. 5 Toronto Raptors (20)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 3
Abacus 15-week Rating: 5
Abacus 12-week Rating: 5
[Abacus 9-week Rating: 5
Abacus 6-week Rating: 3
3-week Abacus rating: 4]

40-19, .678; 1st in Atlantic Division / 2nd seed / 5th overall
KK:  +12; (18 Road Wins – 6 Home Losses) / No. 3 overall (tied)
CQ:  +23; (.508 [6th] - .485 [9th]) / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +33; (559 [7th] – 526 [6th]) / No. 6 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (11), Series Won (0)

No. 6 Los Angeles Clippers (29.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 7
Abacus 15-week Rating: 6
Abacus 12-week Rating: 6
Abacus 9-week Rating: 8
Abacus 6-week Rating: 15
3-week Abacus rating: 12]

40-20, .667; 2nd in Pacific Division /4th seed / 6th overall
KK:  +9; (19 Road Wins – 10 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)
CQ:  +28; (.513 [4th] - .485 [8th]) / No. 4 overall
SPOR-t:  +8; (541 [16th] – 533 [14th]) / No.  14 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (4), Total Games (54), Series Won (3)

No. 7 Miami Heat (32.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 9
Abacus 15-week Rating: 8
Abacus 12-week Rating: 8
Abacus 9-week Rating: 10
Abacus 6-week Rating: 8
3-week Abacus rating: 5]

34-26, .567; 1st in Southeast Division / 4th seed / 9th overall
KK:  +3; (15 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +23; (.501 [9th] - .478 [4th]) / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +33; (542 [15th] – 520 [3rd]) / No. 8 overall  
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (66), Series Won (11)

No. 8 Boston Celtics (34)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 6
Abacus 15-week Rating: 7
Abacus 12-week Rating: 11
Abacus 9-week Rating: 11
Abacus 6-week Rating: 10
3-week Abacus rating: 9]

37-25, .597; 2nd in Atlantic Division / 3rd seed / 8th overall
KK:  +6; (16 Road Wins – 10 Home Losses) / No. 7 overall
CQ:  +5; (.489 [17th] - .484 [7th]) / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t:  +28; (556 [9th] – 528 [8th]) / No. 7 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (30), Series Won (2)

No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies (34.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 12
Abacus 15-week Rating: 11
Abacus 12-week Rating: 9
Abacus 9-week Rating: 15
Abacus 6-week Rating: 15
3-week Abacus rating: 20]

36-24, .600; 2nd in Southwest Division / 5th seed / 7th overall
KK:  +5; (14 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 8 overall
CQ:  +13; (.500 [13th] - .487 [10th]) / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t:  +13; (540 [18th] – 527 [7th]) / No. 11 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (4), Total Games (40), Series Won (3)

No. 10 Detroit Pistons (42.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 14
Abacus 15-week Rating: 9
Abacus 12-week Rating: 7
Abacus 9-week Rating: 9
Abacus 6-week Rating: 7
3-week Abacus rating: 8]

31-30, .508; 3rd in Central Division / 8th seed / 15th overall

KK:  +2; (13 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +10; (.501 [8th] - .491 [13th]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +43; (572 [4th] – 529 [10th]) / No. 5 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (0), Total Games (0), Series Won (0)


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 1)

Which teams are performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of the floor? Let’s consider four elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Offensive Rebounding and the matter of turnovers. These teams hold a Top Ten rank offensively and defensively:

FG%: Atlanta, Golden State, LA Clippers, Miami, OKC, San Antonio
3FG%: Chicago, Cleveland, Golden State, San Antonio
PPG: Cleveland, LA Clippers, San Antonio
OR%: Cleveland, Denver, Detroit
TO%: Boston, LA Clippers, Memphis


No. 11 Indiana Pacers (46.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 11
Abacus 15-week Rating: 10
Abacus 12-week Rating: 10
Abacus 9-week Rating: 6
Abacus 6-week Rating: 5
3-week Abacus rating: 16]

32-29, .525; 2nd in Central Division / 7th seed / 14th overall
KK:  +3; (14 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses / No. 9 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +10; (.489 [19th] - .479 [5th]) / No. 9 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +12; (536 [20th] – 524 [5th]) / No. 13 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (49), Series Won (5)

No. 12 Charlotte Hornets (52)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 13
Abacus 15-week Rating: 15
Abacus 12-week Rating: 18
Abacus 9-week Rating: 13
Abacus 6-week Rating: 9
3-week Abacus rating: 14]

32-28, .533; 3rd in Southeast Division / 6th seed / 12th overall
KK:  +3; (12 Road Wins – 9 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +4: (.481 [26th] - .477 [3rd]) / No. 13 overall
SPOR-t:  -1; (507 [28th] – 508 [2nd]) / No. 17 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (4), Series Won (0)

No. 13 Atlanta Hawks (57)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 10
Abacus 15-week Rating: 12
Abacus 12-week Rating: 12
Abacus 9-week Rating: 12
Abacus 6-week Rating: 14
3-week Abacus rating: 10]

33-28, .541; 2nd in Southeast Division / 5th seed / 10th overall
KK:  +2; (14 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +7; (.479 [27th] - .472 [2nd]) / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t:  -26; (504 [29th] – 530 [11th]) / No. 23 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (4), Total Games (35), Series Won (2)

No. 14 Portland Trail Blazers (58)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 8
Abacus 15-week Rating: 14
Abacus 12-week Rating: 17
Abacus 9-week Rating: 18
Abacus 6-week Rating: 19
3-week Abacus rating: 26]

33-29, .532; 2nd in Northwest Division / 7th seed / 13th overall
KK:  +2; (14 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 12 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -10; (.494 [14th] - .504 [25th]) / No. 22 overall
SPOR-t:  +16; (564 [6th] – 548 [18th]) / No. 10 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (16), Series Won (1)

No. 15 Utah Jazz (64.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 15
Abacus 15-week Rating: 13
Abacus 12-week Rating: 16
Abacus 9-week Rating: 16
Abacus 6-week Rating: 11
3-week Abacus rating: 7]

28-32, .467; 3rd in Northwest Division / 9th seed / 19th overall
KK:  -3; (9 Road Wins – 12 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall (tied)
CQ:  -1; (.493 [15th] - .494 [16th]) / No. 17 overall
SPOR-t:  +20; (554 [11th] – 534 [14th]) / No. 9 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (4), Series Won (0)

No. 16 Dallas Mavericks (73)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 16
Abacus 15-week Rating: 16
Abacus 12-week Rating: 14
Abacus 9-week Rating: 14
Abacus 6-week Rating: 13
3-week Abacus rating: 10]

33-28, .541; 3rd in Southwest Division / 6th seed / 11th overall
KK:  +1; (14 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 15 overall
CQ:  -5; (.489 [20th] - .494 [17th]) / No. 20 overall
SPOR-t:  -34; (516 [24th] – 550 [19th]) / No. 27 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (16), Series Won (0)

No. 17 Orlando Magic (73.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 21
Abacus 15-week Rating: 18
Abacus 12-week Rating: 14
Abacus 9-week Rating: 7
Abacus 6-week Rating: 12
3-week Abacus rating: 19]

27-33, .450; 5th in Southeast Division / 11th seed / 20th overall
KK:  -5; (10 Road Wins – 15 Home Losses) / No. 21 overall
CQ:  -7; (.483 [24th] - .490 [12th]) / No. 21 overall
SPOR-t:  +13; (541 [16th] – 528 [8th]) / No. 11 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (5), Series Won (0)

No. 18 Milwaukee Bucks (74)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 22
Abacus 15-week Rating: 21
Abacus 12-week Rating: 22
Abacus 9-week Rating: 27
Abacus 6-week Rating: 26
3-week Abacus rating: 24]

25-36, .410; 5th in Central Division / 12th seed / 21st overall
KK:  -3; (8 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 19 overall (tied)
CQ:  0; (.500 [11th] - .500 [20th]) / No. 15 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -10; (557 [8th] – 567 [26th]) / No. 18 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (10), Series Won (0)

No. 18 Washington Wizards (74)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 18
Abacus 15-week Rating: 23
Abacus 12-week Rating: 23
Abacus 9-week Rating: 19
Abacus 6-week Rating: 20
3-week Abacus rating: 22]

30-30, .500; 4th in Southeast Division / 9th seed / 16th overall (tied)
KK:  -2; (14 Road Wins – 16 Home Losses) / No. 18 overall
CQ:  -4; (.489 [18th] - .493 [14th]) / No. 19 overall
SPOR-t:  -17; (516 [24th] – 533 [12th]) / No. 20 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (21), Series Won (2)

No. 20 Sacramento Kings (75)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 23
Abacus 15-week Rating: 19
Abacus 12-week Rating: 20
Abacus 9-week Rating: 23
Abacus 6-week Rating: 25
3-week Abacus rating: 23]

24-35, .407; 3rd in Pacific Division / 10th seed / 22nd overall
KK:  -6; (10 Road Wins – 16 Home Losses) / No. 22 overall (tied)*
CQ:  +3; (.501 [10th] - .498 [19th]) / No. 14 overall
SPOR-t:  0; (550 [12th] – 550 [19th]) / No. 16 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (0), Total Games (0), Series Won (0)


ABACUS INFOMERCIAL

Masters of the Craft (Part 2)

Are not the exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a Bottom Ten offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG shooting, three-point shooting, Offensive Rebounding and the matter of turnovers.

FG%: Denver, LA Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix
3FG%: Memphis
PPG: LA Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix
OR%: Atlanta, LA Clippers, Memphis, Philadelphia
TO%: Oklahoma City


No. 21 Chicago Bulls (78)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 19
Abacus 15-week Rating: 17
Abacus 12-week Rating: 13
Abacus 9-week Rating: 17
Abacus 6-week Rating: 17
3-week Abacus rating: 13] 

30-30, .500; 4th in Central Division /9th seed / 16th overall (tied)
KK:  0; (11 Road Wins – 11 Home Losses) / No. 16 overall
CQ:  -14; (.482 [25th] - .496 [18th]) / No. 23 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -20; (546 [14th] – 566 [24th]) / No. 22 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (4), Total Games (35), Series Won (2)

No. 22 Houston Rockets (78.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 17
Abacus 15-week Rating: 20
Abacus 12-week Rating: 19
Abacus 9-week Rating: 20
Abacus 6-week Rating: 27
3-week Abacus rating: 27]

30-31, .492; 4th in Southwest Division / 8th seed / 18th overall
KK:  -1; (13 Road Wins – 14 Home Losses) / No. 17 overall
CQ:  -3; (.500 [12th] - .503 [24th]) / No. 18 overall
SPOR-t:  -33; (535 [22nd] – 568 [27th]) / No. 25 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (29), Series Won (2)

No. 23 Denver Nuggets (85.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 25
Abacus 15-week Rating: 22
Abacus 12-week Rating: 24
Abacus 9-week Rating: 21
Abacus 6-week Rating: 23
3-week Abacus rating: 18]

24-37, .393; 4th in Northwest Division / 11th seed / 24th overall
KK:  -6; (12 Road Wins – 18 Home Losses) / No. 22 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -14; (.489 [16th] - .503 [22th]) / No. 23 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  +3: (548 [13th] – 545 [17th]) / No. 15 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (13), Series Won (0)

No. 24 Minnesota Timberwolves (86.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 24
Abacus 15-week Rating: 24
Abacus 12-week Rating: 25
Abacus 9-week Rating: 22
Abacus 6-week Rating: 18
3-week Abacus rating: 17]

19-42, .311; 5th in Northwest Division / 13th seed / 26th overall
KK:  -12; (9 Road Wins – 21 Home Losses) / No. 26 overall
CQ:  0; (.508 [5th] - .508 [26th]) / No. 15 overall (tied)
SPOR-t:  -11; (555 [10th] – 566 [24th]) / No. 19 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (0), Total Games (0), Series Won (0)

No. 25 New Orleans Pelicans (93.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 20
Abacus 15-week Rating: 25
Abacus 12-week Rating: 27
Abacus 9-week Rating: 28
Abacus 6-week Rating: 28
3-week Abacus rating: 29]

23-36, .390; 5th in Southwest Division / 12th seed / 25th overall
KK:  -6; (7 Road Wins – 13 Home Losses) / No. 22 overall (tied)*
CQ:  -15; (.488 [21st] - .503 [23rd]) / No. 25 overall
SPOR-t:  -17; (527 [23rd] – 544 [16th]) / No. 20 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (4), Series Won (0)

No. 26 New York Knicks (100.5)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 26
Abacus 15-week Rating: 26
Abacus 12-week Rating: 21
Abacus 9-week Rating: 25
Abacus 6-week Rating: 24
3-week Abacus rating: 20]

25-37, .403; 3rd in Atlantic Division / 13th seed / 23rd overall
KK:  -8; (10 Road Wins – 18 Home Losses) / No. 25 overall
CQ:  -22; (.486 [22nd] - .508 [25th]) / No. 27 overall
SPOR-t:  -33; (540 [18th] – 573 [29th]) / No. 25 overall (tied)
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (17), Series Won (1)

No. 27 Brooklyn Nets (105)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 27
Abacus 15-week Rating: 27
Abacus 12-week Rating: 26
Abacus 9-week Rating: 24
Abacus 6-week Rating: 22
3-week Abacus rating: 25]

17-44, .279; 4th in Atlantic Division / 14th seed / 27th overall
KK:  -16; (6 Road Wins – 22 Home Losses) / No. 28 overall
CQ:  -16; (.484 [23rd] - .500 [21st]) / No. 26 overall
SPOR-t:  -27; (536 [20th] – 563 [23rd]) / No. 24 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (3), Total Games (25), Series Won (1)

No. 28 Phoenix Suns (113)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 30
Abacus 15-week Rating: 28
Abacus 12-week Rating: 28
Abacus 9-week Rating: 26
Abacus 6-week Rating: 21
3-week Abacus rating: 15]

15-45, .250; 4th in Pacific Division / 14th seed / 28th overall
KK:  -17; (4 Road Wins – 21 Home Losses) / No. 29 overall
CQ:  -44; (.471 [29th] - .515 [29th]) / No. 28 overall
SPOR-t:  -42; (514 [26th] – 556 [22nd]) / No. 28 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (0), Total Games (0), Series Won (0)

No. 29 Los Angeles Lakers (115)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 29
Abacus 15-week Rating: 29
Abacus 12-week Rating: 29
Abacus 9-week Rating: 29
Abacus 6-week Rating: 29
3-week Abacus rating: 28]

12-50, .194; 5th in Pacific Division / 15th seed / 29th overall
KK:  -15; (5 Road Wins – 20 Home Losses) / No. 27 overall
CQ:  -53; (.473 [28th] - .526 [30th]) / No. 30 overall
SPOR-t:  -94; (509 [27th] – 603 [30th]) / No. 29 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (2), Total Games (16), Series Won (1)

No. 30 Philadelphia 76ers (119)
[ESPN 18-week Rating: 28
Abacus 15-week Rating: 30
Abacus 12-week Rating: 30
Abacus 9-week Rating: 30
Abacus 6-week Rating: 30
3-week Abacus rating: 30]

8-53, .131; 5th in Atlantic Division / 15th seed / 30th overall
KK:  -21; (3 Road Wins – 24 Home Losses) / No. 30 overall
CQ:  -50; (.461 [30th] - .511 [28th]) / No. 29 overall
SPOR-t:  -97; (473 [30th] – 570 [28th]) / No. 30 overall
Abacus Revelation: Playoff Appearances (1), Total Games (13), Series Won (1)


Power Ratings --The Measurement Instrument

Our team-ranking tool utilizes four elements. Two scales are based solely on team wins and losses; the others are measures of the efficiency of team performance in comparison with the competition. 

First, we’ll simply use win-loss record irrespective of conference.

The second criterion will be the difference between a team’s road wins and its home losses. Since this cute little metric is said to be a personal favorite of veteran NBA coach George Karl, let’s call this the Karl Kount (KK).

Criterion No. 3, Conversion Quotient (CQ), involves the rate at which a team converts its possessions into a successful field goals or free throw attempts. Like the KK, the computation is simple subtraction—a team’s rate of offensive efficiency minus that of the opponent.

Lastly, please allow Abacus to introduce the “SPOR-t” score. SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o. boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on .143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its opposition.

We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 30 in all criteria and simply add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.