The opening fortnight of WNBA play (May 12 – 25) offered a
slate of 24 games. An average team performance during this span featured 28 for
66 shooting (about 42%) and included five or six successful three-pointers in
17 tries. About 17 of 21 free throws fell, while teams were snatching 33 or 34
rebounds (of which roughly nine came off the offensive glass) and turning the
ball over a perhaps unlucky 13 times in 77 possessions.
The “flagship” Minnesota Lynx have wrapped up 15% of their
schedule unblemished in their quest to regain a title they’ve understandably
grown to think of as their own. But early returns can be deceiving in the chaotic
and at times nomadic world of elite women’s basketball.
And even with its imperfections, women’s basketball doesn’t
get any more elite than Ms. Borders’s North American summer league.
Here’s how the teams rank at this early stage. Will the
Delle Donne / Thibault tag team ride their early flair to post-season success?
The Grading Scale
“Flow”: this calculation puts a number to a team’s
unsuccessful possessions (i.e. the other guys’ “stops”). Just take their missed
field goals (attempts minus makes), subtract the offensive rebounds, and then
add the turnovers. The “scores” represent per-game performance.
“Striping”: this calculation measures the impact of missed
free throws and made treys. By subtracting the former from the latter [3’s
minus missed FT’s], we identify a team’s gain or loss in points through
“specialty shooting.” Again the “scores” are per-game. (A further division by
two converts “points” to “conversions” – thus they can be combined with the
“Flow” score.)
KK: Karl Kount – named for George Karl – is a way to measure
a team’s grit and savvy through its ability to defend its home court and win on
the road, a simple calculation for generally reliable info.
“SPOR-t”: SPOR-t stands for “Shooting Plus
Offensive Rebounds minus turnovers.” Add a team’s FG percentage and its
offensive rebounding percentage (o. boards divided by the sum of those o.
boards and the opposition's d. boards). Then subtract the percentage of a
team’s possessions lost to turnovers. For example, a team shoots field goals at
a .488 clip, offensive rebounds at a rate of .199, and commits a turnover on
.143 of its possessions. So its SPOR-t is (488+199-143) or 544. Once again, our
measurement will be the difference between the SPOR-t scores of a team and its
opposition.
We’ll rank the teams from 1 to 12 in all criteria and simply
add up the rankings. Low score wins, naturally.
No.
1 Minnesota Lynx, 5-0 (10.5)
KK: +3; (3 Road Wins
– 0 Home Losses) / No. 1 overall
Flow: +4.00; (46.6 stops
OF opp [No. 3] – 42.6 stops BY opp [No. 6] / No. 2 overall
Striping: +0.20; (+0.50)
conversions [No. 6] – (+0.30) opp conversions [No. 6] / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: +95; (588
[No. 3] – 493 [No. 3]) / No. 2 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Lynx 9.2 point per game differential tops the “W” handily.
No.
2 Washington Mystics, 3-2 (12.5)
KK: +1; (1 Road Win –
0 Home Losses) / No. 2 overall (tied)-3
Flow: +3.40; (42.2 stops
OF opp [No. 6] – 38.8 stops BY opp [No. 3] / No. 3 overall
Striping: +0.20; (+2.60)
conversions [No. 2] – (+2.40) opp conversions [No. 10] / No. 5 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: +140; (640
[No. 1] – 500 [No. 4]) / No. 1 overall
Abacus
Revelation: The Mystics are the league’s best defensive rebounding team.
No.
3 Dallas Wings, 2-1 (20)
KK: +1; (2 Road Wins
– 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall (tied)-3
Flow: +1.33; (42.3 stops
OF opp [No. 5] – 41.0 stops BY opp [No. 5] / No. 6 overall
Striping: -0.33;
(-0.50) conversions [No. 9] – (-0.17) conversions [No. 3] / No. 8 overall
SPOR-t: +81; (627
[No. 2] – 546 [No. 7]) / No. 3 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Wings rank third in overall shooting (.449) but last (.214) from behind the
arc.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 1)
Which teams are
performing the rudimentary skills of the game most proficiently at both ends of
the floor? Let’s consider six elements of play: FG shooting, three-point
shooting, Points per Game, Offensive Rebounding, the matter of turnovers and
the SPOR-t score of our ratings. These teams hold a Top Four rank offensively
and defensively:
FG%: NONE
3FG%: NONE
PPG: Dallas, Minnesota
OR%: Washington
TO%: Indiana, Los
Angeles
SPOR-t: Minnesota, Washington
No.
4 Atlanta Dream, 2-1 (21)
KK: +1; (2 Road Wins
– 1 Home Loss) / No. 2 overall (tied)-3
Flow: +6.67; (50.0 stops
OF opp [No. 1] – 43.3 stops BY opp [No. 8] / No. 1 overall
Striping: -1.33;
[-0.83) conversions [No. 11] – (+0.50) conversions [No. 7] / No. 12 overall
SPOR-t: +8; (500 [No.
10] – 492 [No. 2]) / No. 5 overall
Abacus Revelation: The aggressive Atlanta defense creates a league-best
50 “stops” per game.
No.
5 New York Liberty, 2-2 (23)
KK: 0; (1 Road Win –
1 Home Loss) / No. 5 overall (tied)-4
Flow: -2.50; (41.3 stops
OF opp [No. 8] – 43.8 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 9 overall
Striping: +0.50;
(+0.50) conversions [No. 6] – (0.00) opp conversions [No. 4] / No. 3 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: +22; (522
[No. 8] – 500 [No. 4]) / No. 4 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The grind-it-out Liberty are one of only two squads to both score and yield
fewer than 80 points per game.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Pace
100+ points: 0 games
90-99 points: 6 games
80-89 points: 18 games
70-79 points: 14
games
60-69 points: 9 games
<60 points: 1 game
No.
6 Indiana Fever, 2-2 (25.5)
KK: 0; (0 Road Wins –
0 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)-4
Flow: -1.50; (37.3 stops
OF opp [No. 12] – 38.8 stops BY opp [No. 2] / No. 8 overall
Striping: +0.88;
(+1.62) conversions [No. 4] – (+0.75) conversions [No. 8] / No. 1 overall
SPOR-t: -68; (580
[No. 4] – 648 [No. 12]) / No. 10 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Fever defense allows opponents a league-worst 53% conversion rate.
No.
7 Phoenix Mercury, 2-2 (26.5)
KK: -1; (1 Road Win –
2 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow: +3.25; (47.0 stops
OF opp [No. 2] – 43.8 stops BY opp [No. 9] / No. 4 overall (tied)
Striping: +0.50; (-0.50)
conversions [No. 9] – (-1.00) opp conversions [No. 1] / No. 3 overall (tied)
SPOR-t: -67; (413
[No. 12] – 480 [No. 1]) / No. 9 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Merc’s top-ranked defense allows a conversion on but 43% of opponent
possessions.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Scoring Differential
1-5 points: 7 games
6-10 points: 11 games
11-15 points: 4 games
16-20 points: 1 game
>20: 1 game
No.
8 Los Angeles Sparks, 2-1 (28.5)
KK: 0; (0 Road Wins –
0 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)-4
Flow: +0.33; (37.7 stops
OF opp [No. 11] – 37.3 stops BY opp [No. 1] / No. 7 overall
Striping: -0.50; (+2.67)
conversions [No. 1] – (+3.17) opp conversions [No. 12]) / No. 9 overall
SPOR-t: +4; (568 [No.
5] – 564 [No. 8]) / No. 6 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The defending champs are the league’s most accurate FG shooters (.515) in the
early going.
No.
9 Seattle Storm, 3-1 (30)
KK: 0; (0 Road Wins –
0 Home Losses) / No. 5 overall (tied)-4
Flow: +3.25; (43.0 stops
OF opp [No. 4] – 39.8 stops BY opp [No. 4] / No. 4 overall (tied)
Striping: -0.75; (+2.13)
conversions [No. 3] - (+2.88) opp conversions [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
SPOR-t: -41; (534
[No. 6] – 575 [No. 9]) / No. 8 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Storm take 8.25 more free throws per game than the opposition, the largest
differential in the league.
ABACUS INFOMERCIAL
Masters of the Craft
(Part 2)
Are not the
exceptionally inept worthy of some recognition? Here are the teams that hold a
Bottom Four offensive and defensive ranking in our key elements of play: FG
shooting, three-point shooting, PPG, Offensive Rebounding, Turnovers and SPOR-t.
FG%: Dallas
3FG%: NONE
PPG: Chicago, San
Antonio
OR%: NONE
TO%: Seattle
SPOR-t: Chicago
No.
10 Connecticut Sun, 0-4 (31.5)
KK: -2; (0 Road Wins
– 2 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)
Flow: -6.25; (40.5 stops
OF opp [No. 9] – 46.8 stops BY opp [No. 11] / No. 11 overall
Striping: +0.75;
(+1.62) conversions [No. 4] – (+0.88) conversions [No. 9] / No. 2 overall
SPOR-t: -19; (513
[No. 9] – 532 [No. 6]) / No. 7 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sun stand No. 2 in three-point shooting (.403).
No. 11
Chicago Sky, 1-4 (40.5)
KK: -1; (1 Road Win –
2 Home Losses) / No. 9 overall (tied)
Flow: -6.60; (42.2 stops
OF opp [No. 6] – 48.8 stops BY opp [No. 12] / No. 12 overall
Striping: -0.10; (0.00)
conversions [No. 8] – (+0.10) opp conversions [No. 5] / No. 7 overall
SPOR-t: -98; (487
[No. 11] – 585 [No. 10]) / No. 12 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The Sky rank dead last so far in 3-point usage.
No.
12 San Antonio Stars, 0-4 (42.5)
KK: -2; (0 Road Wins
– 2 Home Losses) / No. 11 overall (tied)
Flow: -3.50; (39.8 stops
OF opp [No. 10] – 43.3 stops BY opp [No. 7] / No. 10 overall
Striping: -0.62; (-1.00)
conversions [No. 12] – (-0.37) opp conversions [No. 2] / No. 10 overall
SPOR-t: -79; (532
[No. 7] – 611 [No. 11]) / No. 11 overall
Abacus Revelation:
The scrappy Stars rank No. 4 in defending the three-ball.
Abacus Revelation for
the Road / Random Ranking (per-game missed free throws)
Washington 2.40
Indiana 2.75
Seattle 3.00
Los Angeles 3.33
Connecticut 3.50
Dallas 4.00
Chicago 4.40
New York 4.50
Minnesota 5.00
Phoenix 5.25
San Antonio 5.50
Atlanta 6.67
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